Top 5 Insights for the 2026 Biofuels Market

During our latest ResourceWise webinar, Finding Feedstocks: Biofuels Outlook 2026, VP of Low-Carbon Fuels, Matthew Stone, highlighted the market signals that will define its short- and longer-term future.

As we look ahead to 2026, the global biofuels market is entering a period of rapid change. These shifts will be shaped by evolving policy frameworks, tightening feedstock availability, and intensifying demand from hard-to-abate sectors. 

Here are the top five insights shaping the 2026 biofuels landscape.

1. Policy Tightening Around Waste Oils Will Fundamentally Reshape Feedstock Flows

Several global regions are implementing stricter rules on used cooking oil (UCO) imports and traceability. The EU’s increasing scrutiny of Asian-origin UCO, along with broader concerns about fraudulent feedstock reporting and anti-dumping rulings, is tightening compliance requirements across the board.

These changes will directly impact trade flows into Europe by raising the bar on documentation and verification. This will also put pressure on producers dependent on imported waste oils.

As these developments show, policy is no longer just a background factor in the biofuels market. It's one of the primary market drivers for 2026.

2. SAF Demand Continues Climbing, While Blending Timing is Becoming More Seasonal

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) remains one of the fastest-growing segments, driven largely by mandates and airline commitments. But the webinar highlighted an emerging pattern: buyers increasingly delay blending until the second half of the year, leading to a seasonal “catch-up” effect.

Related: UK SAF Prices Jump Over 60% as Demand Surges

This behavior is likely to persist into 2026 as buyers optimize credit positions, navigate uncertain pricing, and respond to evolving compliance rules. SAF demand will stay strong. But supply planning will become more complex and uneven through the year.

3. Renewable Diesel Markets Face Continued Volatility with Margin Pressure and Imports

Renewable diesel (HVO/RD) markets are feeling the strain from multiple factors:

• Fluctuating Feedstock Prices
• Uncertain Import Volumes
• Tightening Renewable Fuel Standards

While demand remains resilient, margins are sensitive. And producers are paying closer attention to trade developments from the US, Asia, and the Middle East.

Expect 2026 to bring greater emphasis on flexible feedstock strategies, diversification of supply chains, and heightened sensitivity to regulatory shifts in major producing regions.

4. Biofuel Producers Will Prioritize Reliable, Scalable Feedstocks

One of the strongest themes in the webinar was that producers are shifting away from purely cost-driven feedstock procurement. Instead, they are focusing on:

• Long-Term Supply Security
• Robust Sustainability Documentation
• Scalable Volumes Tolerant of Policy Tightening

The convergence of fraud concerns, import restrictions, and rising verification costs means that buyers are placing a premium on trusted supply partners rather than opportunistic sourcing. This shift will deepen in 2026, especially for UCO, tallow, and other key waste-based fats.

5. The Market is Preparing for a Major Cross-Commodity Scramble

SAF, e-Fuels, and renewable diesel are all competing for the same limited waste-oil and bio-intermediate pools. Accordingly, pressure across the value chain is intensifying.

The webinar noted that inter-sector competition for feedstocks is already reshaping price signals. This is particularly strong where obligations are the most prevalent, such as aviation.

This multi-sector pull on finite supplies is expected to escalate through 2026. It will place upward pressure on premium waste oils and increase the need for advanced verification and logistics solutions.

Ultimately, this convergence of demand means that producers, traders, and obligated parties will need more streamlined sourcing strategies, more transparent partnerships, and deeper biofuels market intelligence to stay ahead.

2026: Rewards Ahead for Early Planners and Adopters

The 2026 biofuels market will be shaped by the interaction of tightening policy, constrained feedstock availability, and accelerating demand from aviation and renewable diesel.

Industry players that invest early in documentation, risk management, and diversified supply chains will be better positioned to maintain compliance. Doing so will also protect their margins in a more competitive environment.

ResourceWise will continue tracking these developments as the market evolve, providing ongoing insights to help you navigate the shifting landscape.

2026 Biofuels Market Outlook Webinar Now Available On-Demand

If you missed it, you can now get on-demand access to our latest webinar, Biofuels Market Outlook 2026.

What We Cover:

• Regulatory Transitions
• Trading Signals
• Feedstock Dynamics
• Policy Fundamentals
• SAF and Bio-Bunkering Market Analyses

You won’t want to miss these critical insights from Mat Stone, ResourceWise’s VP of Low Carbon Fuels. Register now and get immediate access to the webinar.