UK SAF Prices Jump Over 60% as Demand Surges

The UK’s push toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is accelerating. And that push is beginning to show up directly in the market with surging prices.

The Department for Transport (DfT) has released the second edition of its provisional 2025 SAF report, providing the clearest picture yet of how obligated parties are progressing toward this year’s targets.

Covering data through mid-September, the report offers updated insight into jet fuel demand, SAF uptake, fuel origin, and technology pathways. While the figures remain provisional, they are currently the best indicator of whether the UK is on track to meet its 2% blend mandate.

SAF Consumption Rising, But Still Falling Short

Through mid-September, the UK consumed 158 million liters of SAF. On its own, that headline number suggests positive momentum. But volume alone doesn’t tell the full compliance story, unfortunately.

To understand how suppliers are actually performing, we need to compare SAF uptake against:

• Fossil Jet Fuel Consumption
• Achieved Blending Rates
• Mandated Blending Requirements

Looking on a broader scale, the picture is more complicated.

Across the year so far, only one reporting period exceeded the mandated 2% blend rate. The national average currently sits at 1.63%, far below the target.

With limited time remaining in 2025, obligated parties are now under significant pressure to make up lost ground. And that scramble is reshaping the market.

Late-Year Rush Driving Prices Higher

As suppliers attempt to catch up, SAF prices are skyrocketing.

The year prior, SAF prices remained relatively stable at $1,800/t. From July onward, prices spiked from that stable $1,800 to more than $2,900/t. This rapid increase reflects the intense, last-minute push by obligated parties who delayed procurement and are now racing to close their compliance gap.

The cost implications are stark:

• Meeting a 2% blend when SAF was $1,800/t meant paying around $36/t for blended SAF.
• Buying at today’s $2,900+/t pushes that cost to roughly $58/t.

That’s a $22/t difference simply due to timing. For an industry where margins often live in the single digits, this is a substantial penalty.

The lesson is clear: SAF supply planning can no longer be an afterthought. Those who delay are paying for it (literally).

How Much More SAF Does the UK Need This Year?

To understand the supply gap more clearly, we can estimate the remaining jet fuel demand for the full year.

• Jet consumption to date: 9.83 billion liters
• Estimated consumption for the rest of the year: 4.02 billion liters
• Total projected 2025 consumption: 13.849 billion liters

At a mandated 2% SAF blend, the UK must supply a total of 277 million liters of SAF.

With 158 million liters already consumed by mid-September, the remaining requirement is 119 million liters. Working through the math, this means 43% of the annual SAF requirement must be delivered in the final 29% of the year.

This mismatch between supply timing and regulatory deadlines is the clearest explanation for the current price surge.

A Tight Market With Clear Signals

The UK’s SAF market is entering a formative phase. Mandates are tightening while uptake is accelerating. Accordingly, many suppliers are also learning that compliance requires forward planning.

Prices are rising not because SAF availability collapsed, but because demand is being compressed into a narrow window as obligated parties try to catch up.

As long as this pattern continues, volatility will remain a feature of the market.

But the bigger takeaway is this: the surge in price is a sign of surging demand. The UK’s SAF mandate is working exactly as intended. It is driving real uptake, stimulating the market, and sending strong signals to producers.

The question now is whether suppliers will adapt their procurement strategies in time for the next compliance cycle.

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As this market news shows, the biofuels market is often fraught with volatility and uncertainty. To help make things clearer, join us for a live webinar covering a broad outlook on what’s to come in the biofuels market.

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Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025

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Matthew Stone, ResourceWise’s VP of Business Development and Low Carbon Fuels, will take you through several pertinent topics impacting the biofuels industry:

• SAF Market Overview
• Upcoming Mandates and Impacts on EU trade
• Feedstock Dynamics
• Policy, Markets, and Fundamentals
• Marine Biofuels Industry Analysis

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