The Americas methanol market in 2025 shifted from a relatively tight, high-priced environment early in the year to a well-supplied and increasingly competitive market by year-end. Early tightness stemmed from several supply interruptions, including Methanex's Geismar-3 outage, disruptions at Natgasoline, curtailed Trinidad output, and higher port fees that reduced export reliability from the Caribbean. These events constrained regional availability and kept posted methanol prices elevated, with Methanex's U.S. MNDRP reaching as high as $2.68/gal and remaining flat for several months.
As 2025 progressed, production normalized. Geismar-3 returned to service in May; Trinidad showed partial recovery at Titan despite ongoing gas constraints; and U.S. Gulf units, including Fairway and Natgasoline, ran consistently outside brief outages. As supply stabilized and exports remained uneconomic, the regional balance loosened significantly. Spot values decoupled from postings, falling into the low-$1.00/gal range by September and into the high-$0.80s to low-$0.90s/gal range by the fourth quarter, even as posted numbers remained flat or eased only slightly.
Regional Methanol Supply Trends Across North America
By the second half of the year, supply across North America was described as steady to long. The return of Geismar-3 in May materially increased U.S. Gulf availability, shifting the region from early tightness to persistent length. U.S. producers found limited opportunities to export surplus material as global methanol prices weakened, often falling below U.S. Gulf netbacks. Producers therefore relied on domestic discounting, rather than export arbitrage, to maintain offtake.
Fairway's September outage and Natgasoline's brief October downtime created only short-lived tightness; both facilities returned quickly, and spot markets remained under pressure. In Canada, Methanex's WCDP followed a similar softening trend, ultimately dropping to CAD 765/mt by December amid balanced supply and increased competition from U.S. volumes. Canadian-delivered truck offers generally ranged from the high CAD 600s to the low 800s per metric ton, reflecting logistical differences across provinces but consistently ample supply.
Derivative Demand and Consumption Patterns in the Americas
Demand across the Americas remained steady to soft throughout 2025, with no derivative sector generating enough momentum to materially tighten the methanol balance. Formaldehyde and resins—the largest consumers of methanol—underperformed as U.S. housing activity remained near the 1.3-million SAAR range and panel producers operated well below optimal rates. Buyers continued purchasing methanol on a hand-to-mouth basis, reflecting conservative inventory strategies and uneven downstream consumption.
Acetyl-chain demand showed a similar pattern, with steady contract volumes but soft spot markets and order books aligned to modest industrial activity. MTBE and gasoline-blend usage remained stable but unexceptional after summer transitions. Biofuels consumption was largely formula-driven and did not contribute significantly to growth. Seasonal demand for windshield-wash and de-icer products was one of the few consistently firm segments—particularly in the Midwest, Northeast, and Western Canada—but its scale was insufficient to shift the overall supply–demand balance.
End-of-Year Pricing and Market Conditions
By year-end, price assessments across the Americas reflected broad regional softness. U.S. Gulf barges settled near $0.90/gal, while distributor truck volumes traded around $1.00–$1.02/gal. The Midwest continued to command freight-driven premiums in the $1.25–$1.39/gal range. Northeastern FOB New Jersey trades clustered in the low- to mid-$1.30s/gal, and Southeastern offers moved into the low-$1.10s/gal amid strong competition.
In summary, 2025 concluded with the Americas firmly long on methanol. The market faced abundant availability, limited export pull, cautious derivative demand, and an increasing disconnect between posted prices and true market-clearing values.
George West
ResourceWise: Jan 15, 2026 2:26:37 PM
