[Video] Molecules to Markets Episode 1: Chemical Markets Begin 2026 in a Supply-Driven, Margin-Sensitive Environment

Week 1 Chemicals Market Update | Featuring Steve Wilkerson, North American Director of Chemical Sales, ResourceWise

As 2026 begins, global chemical markets remain shaped by supply discipline, price deflation, and evolving demand drivers—from AI-driven data center expansion to generational shifts in industrial consumption patterns.

In this week’s video update, Steve Wilkerson examines how volatility across plasticizers, olefins, glycols, methanol, and downstream resins is influencing producer margins and procurement strategy.

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Key Chemical Market Trends to Start 2026

TOTM (PVC Plasticizer): Extreme Volatility in a Supply-Driven Market

TOTM pricing in West Europe—and similarly in North America—has experienced dramatic swings, including nearly 100 percent price movement within a single year before collapsing back toward normalized levels.

As a PVC plasticizer used in high-performance wiring and cable applications, TOTM demand has been influenced by data center expansion and increased power infrastructure buildout. However, pricing remains primarily supply-driven, reinforcing the need for disciplined operating strategies.

Ethylene and Propylene: Stabilization at Lower Levels

North American olefins markets have softened:

• Ethylene contract pricing remains in the 30-cent range, with spot markets between 16–18 cents.
• Propylene has reached one-year lows, with spot prices at levels not seen since 2020.

Producers are operating in a narrow margin environment. With glycols representing approximately 20–25 percent of ethylene consumption, downstream performance will play a critical role in sustaining operating rates.

Glycols (MEG, DEG, TEG): Approaching Cyclical Bottoms

Monoethylene glycol (MEG), diethylene glycol (DEG), and triethylene glycol (TEG) appear to be near cyclical lows in North America.

Further downside may be limited. However, any ethylene spike in 2026 would quickly pressure margins and potentially force rate adjustments in an already supply-driven market.

Caustic Soda: Stable but Chlorine-Influenced

Caustic soda pricing remains relatively stable compared to prior years of strength. Recent movements are largely influenced by chlorine market dynamics rather than demand-side acceleration.

Methanol: Contract and Spot Price Decoupling

Methanol markets continue to show notable divergence between contract and spot pricing.

• Contract prices have seen significant adjustments.
• Domestic spot pricing has remained more subdued.
• Bio-based diesel demand softness has weighed on overall fundamentals.

With major suppliers exerting influence in contract negotiations, buyers must closely monitor independent spot transactions to protect margin exposure.

Unsaturated Polyester Resins (UPR): Downstream Margin Opportunity

Unlike upstream volatility, UPR markets have experienced fewer dramatic swings. Downstream margins may show relative resilience, presenting strategic opportunities depending on feedstock positioning.

What This Means for 2026

The defining theme entering 2026 is not demand collapse—it is margin compression in supply-driven markets.

Operating discipline, feedstock monitoring, and contract-versus-spot analysis will determine performance across multiple chemical value chains.

In environments like this, reactive procurement strategies create risk. Proactive intelligence provides leverage.

Stay Ahead of Chemical Market Volatility

If you would like deeper insights into any of the markets discussed—plasticizers, olefins, glycols, methanol, chlor-alkali, or downstream resins—connect with the ResourceWise chemicals team.