What Pulp and Freight Markets Signal for the Recycled Fiber Market in 2025

The first half of 2025 continues to be shaped by mounting uncertainty across pulp and freight markets—trends that now appear to be accelerating following recent disruptions. While these shifts don’t directly target the recycled fiber sector, their ripple effects are intensifying. 

Let’s break down what’s happening and why it matters for recycled fiber buyers, sellers, and converters. 

Virgin Pulp Pressures 

Recent analysis from Portal Celulose highlights the fragility of the pulp market, with soft demand recovery, persistent inventory overhangs, and pricing instability shaping the global landscape. Mills, particularly in Asia, are navigating a sluggish rebound in consumption while dealing with excess supply. This creates pricing pressure on virgin pulp, making it difficult for producers to maintain rate increases.  

For recycled fiber, this matters because it often functions as a substitute for virgin pulp. When pulp prices dip, the economic case for recycled fiber can weaken. This holds especially true for buyers who have the flexibility to switch between furnish types.  

In the past week, global pulp prices have begun to soften further, reinforcing the downward trend that has pressured producers for months. This decline could continue to erode the competitive pricing advantage of recycled fiber for buyers watching virgin pulp prices as a benchmark. 

However, this isn’t the whole story. Prolonged uncertainty in pulp pricing also drives a need for supply predictability. For some producers, that’s where recycled fiber becomes more attractive—particularly when supported by reliable intelligence and procurement strategy. 

Ocean Freight Friction 

The freight market compounds these pressures. Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially in the Red Sea and potentially the Strait of Hormuz, have sharply increased freight market risk. General rate increases and continued disruption have made long-haul trade lanes more expensive and less reliable.  

For recycled fiber exporters, particularly those moving OCC and mixed paper from North America or Europe to Asia, this adds a serious layer of risk. Recycled fiber tends to be a low-margin commodity, so rising freight costs can quickly turn viable trade flows into loss-making ones.  

The reliability of service also matters. When carriers implement blank sailings or reroute vessels, it’s often lower-value cargo like recycled fiber that gets deprioritized. This can result in missed shipments, delayed deliveries, or excess storage costs—each of which chips away at profitability. 

In Times of Volatility, Intelligence Is a Strategic Asset 

All of these factors point to a central theme: recycled fiber is being shaped not only by its own supply-demand fundamentals, but also by larger, interconnected global forces. To stay competitive, market players need more than just historical pricing—they need tools that can deliver real-time insight, visibility into trade patterns, and forecasting aligned with operational risk. 

This is exactly what ResourceWise’s Recycled Fiber 360 is designed to offer. It’s a specialized intelligence platform built around the unique needs of the recycled fiber market. Recycled Fiber 360 offers: 

• Global pricing trends and market commentary 

• Supply-demand analytics with region-specific granularity 

• Trade flow tracking to monitor key export/import lanes 

• Strategic forecasting tools to model risk scenarios 

Whether you’re a packaging producer looking to stabilize furnish costs or a fiber trader navigating global trade flows, Recycled Fiber 360 helps you turn market volatility into opportunity. 

Be Ready, Not Reactive 

As the pulp and freight markets continue to fluctuate, the smartest operators will be those who recognize the interconnectedness of these markets and proactively adapt. Recycled fiber will remain a key player in the global fiber equation, but success depends on having the right tools and insights. 

Interested in seeing how your current procurement strategy compares to actual market movements? Check out our OCC Savings Calculator to see if you're overspending—and how you can develop a more cost-effective approach.