Reviewing ResourceWise’s 2025 Biofuels Market Predictions: How’d We Do?

At the start of the year, we outlined six key predictions shaping how biofuels markets would evolve in 2025. Now that new mandates have taken effect and policy signals have clarified, we can look back and evaluate how well those predictions aligned with real-world developments.

Below, we revisit each forecast, compare it with what has actually unfolded, and assess how close we were on the mark.

1. SAF demand will take off under EU/UK legislation, becoming embedded in trading and fundamentals.

Assessment: ✔️ Came True

We anticipated a structural shift in SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) demand, driven by the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate in the EU and the UK’s own mandate framework. That momentum has materialized even faster than expected.

The EU’s SAF mandate requiring a 2% blend at all EU airports began in January. Suppliers have already moved aggressively to secure volumes to remain compliant and avoid penalties.

Market participants report that SAF has become a fixture in price discussions, supply planning, and contract negotiation rather than a niche product.

Similarly, the UK’s 2% SAF mandate at the start of 2025 has reinforced demand in an already tightening global supply environment. With both regions charting steep increases through 2030 and beyond, this prediction proved accurate. SAF now sits squarely within mainstream trading and market fundamentals.

2. Maritime biofuels demand will ignite under EU directives and new IMO legislation.

Assessment: ✔️ Came True, With Stronger Momentum Than Expected

We expected maritime biofuels adoption to accelerate throughout the year. And the market has more than delivered on that expectation.

Singapore and the ARA region have continued their bio-bunkering expansion. Their adoption created a domino effect as ports across Asia, Europe, and the Americas introduced their own programs.

The EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulation officially took effect in 2025, imposing emissions-intensity reduction requirements on vessels above 5,000 GT. Despite implementation delays for Norway and Iceland, the regulation’s start has provided clear impetus for shipowners to secure low-carbon fuels.

IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) updates have added another compliance driver, even amid ongoing uncertainty about long-term targets. The absence of complete clarity on future GHG pathways is actually pushing many operators toward short-term, ready-to--use solutions. Most notably, this includes FAME, HVO, and other marine biofuel blends.

Market enthusiasm indicates even faster scaling ahead.

3. Large international corporations will publish their first public CSRD-aligned emissions reports.

Assessment: ✔️ On Track, Though With Some Variability

2024 was the first reporting year under the CSRD (Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive). 2025 marks the first time many large EU-based or EU-operating corporations had to publicly disclose their climate strategies and emissions data.

Most companies have now released or are preparing to release their first CSRD-aligned annual reports. This includes:

• Scope 1, 2, and 3 Emissions Disclosures
• Climate-Risk Assessments
• Sustainability Governance Structures

Some delays and lingering interpretation issues persist, especially around supply-chain emissions calculation. But the overall trajectory is clear: CSRD reporting is moving from theory into practice.

Our forecast was accurate, although implementation is proceeding with a more uneven pace across sectors than originally anticipated.

4. Demand for non-mandated, discretionary carbon mitigation solutions will grow.

Assessment: ✔️ Largely True

This prediction centered on a behavioral shift. Companies, anticipating future regulatory tightening and stakeholder pressure, would adopt carbon-mitigation strategies above and beyond what is legally required.

That trend has played out broadly across industry verticals.

Corporate decarbonization strategies increasingly include voluntary actions such as:

• Early-Stage CCS Agreements
• Energy-Efficiency Retrofits
• Scope 3 Engagement Programs
• Voluntary Low-Carbon Fuel Procurement

The rapidly expanding CCS market, in particular, underscores this change. Several new projects were announced across North America, Europe, and Asia.

While quantifying discretionary mitigation demand remains difficult, the biofuels market signals strongly support our expectation. Voluntary mitigation initiatives are becoming a standard component of corporate climate planning.

5. Carbon removal markets will introduce their first sets of official standards.

Assessment: ✔️ Emerging but Not Fully Realized

We projected that 2025 would bring meaningful progress toward unified standards for carbon removal markets. Engineered removals such as CCS-based CDR (Carbon Capture and Storage Carbon Dioxide Removal) were the markets to watch.

Momentum is indeed building. Several international bodies, including Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) and ISO, have advanced discussions or draft frameworks focused on verification, durability, and reporting requirements for carbon removal. Market participants are increasingly converging around the need for credible standards.

However, formalized and universally-recognized standards have not yet fully arrived. What we are seeing instead is the beginning of alignment: draft standards, consultation periods, and early adoption frameworks.

In short, this prediction is partially true. The groundwork is undeniably underway, but the market is still in the pre-standardization phase.

6. Trump administration tariffs will require stronger US support for biofuels to offset a weaker agricultural export outlook.

Assessment: ⚠️ Too Early to Call, But Initial Signals Align With the Prediction

The return of the Trump administration has already brought early clarity on the 45Z tax credit while raising questions about its long-term structure. At the same time, uncertainty looms around the administration’s tariff strategy and how it will affect US agricultural exports like soy, corn, and other key feedstocks used in domestic biofuel production.

Some analysts project weakened export markets. This aligns with our prediction that the US would lean more heavily on domestic biofuel production and consumption to support rural economies.

But the full tariff regime is still currently taking shape, and agricultural markets take much longer to respond to changing conditions. Accordingly, it remains premature to declare this prediction fully realized.

For now, we can say that the narrative is trending in the direction we anticipated. However, the market has not yet settled on it.

Overall Outlook: Strong Predictive Accuracy in a Rapidly Evolving Market

Across all six predictions, our early-year analysis proved largely accurate:

• Four predictions have clearly come true (SAF demand, maritime biofuels momentum, CSRD reporting, voluntary mitigation growth).
• One is partially realized (carbon removal standards).
• One is still developing and requires more time (US tariffs and agricultural market impacts).

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In the meantime, you can also watch our 2026 Biofuels Market Outlook webinar on demand for a detailed analysis of what to expect in the coming year. Register now for immediate access.