ResourceWise’s 2026 Pulp, Paper, and Forest Products Industry Predictions

The pulp, paper, and forest products industry endured another year of uncertainty and significant change in 2025. From new tariffs and widespread mill closures to persistent overseas overcapacity, the market experienced profound and ongoing transformation. 

As part of our annual tradition, ResourceWise is proud to share our key insights and forecasts for the year ahead. Below are seven predictions we believe will shape the pulp, paper, and forest products industry in 2026. 

2026 Predictions

1. Supply Chain Transparency Will Deepen Despite Regulatory Delays 

The long march toward deeper supply chain transparency will continue, even as European legislated mandates are pushed into 2027. Certification organizations will come under greater scrutiny to prove the bona fides of their sustainability standards. Large consumer products companies and retailers will expand voluntary schemes, placing more – not less – burden on the supply chain.  

2. Chinese Overcapacity and Exports Will Reshape Global Trade and Pricing 

Chinese overcapacity and resulting market pressure will drive additional protectionist actions in regions with significant pulp and paper manufacturing, such as Europe, India, and possibly Brazil. Importing countries with small domestic manufacturing bases will become the new battlegrounds in trade, with globally trade-exposed Western companies losing share and margins. 

At the same time, Chinese exports of pulp and paper will weaken global prices as they make inroads into India and Brazil. This activity will dampen global markets, putting price pressure on U.S. producers despite tariffs. The Chinese government may need to bail out its industry as hyper-competition results in zero-sum outcomes for many players. 

We expect to see anti-dumping actions by several countries hoping to protect domestic industry from surging Chinese capacity. 

3. Carbon Ownership Will Become a Major Source of Value and Conflict  

The fight for ownership of carbon will intensify as new environmental and carbon products enter the market. Pulp mills will prove out their carbon capture and storage plans in 2026, alongside expanded production of crude tall oil and biofuels, all of which will require ESG credentials. Since a large portion of value creation is derived from carbon savings, carbon will require clear measurement, reporting, and verification. As value is created from carbon, natural tension will develop over who owns the carbon, and when and how it is valued. 

4. Financial Stress Will Accelerate Consolidation and Privatization  

Continued pressure across forest value chain markets, together with escalating capital costs and capital requirements, will see public companies either go bankrupt, go private, or merge with healthier companies as a lifeline. Companies with market values far below asset replacement values, but with otherwise competitive mills, will be prime takeover targets.  

5. Lumber Markets Will Remain Under Pressure Until Capacity Exits  

Further pain will be endured in the lumber business. We expected that 1-2 billion board feet of production will come out of the North American market before supply and demand rebalance and lumber prices regain upward momentum.  

6. Containerboard Markets Will Tighten in Late 2026, While Paperboard Struggles 

North American containerboard supply reductions create a backdrop for tighter markets in the second half of 2026, provided the US consumer remains resilient. This could eventually trigger a new cycle of investment and capital flows into the industry. Paperboard markets, however, will continue to remain challenged due to new capacity ramp-ups and a poor global supply-demand balance.  

7. Latin American Buyers Will Gain an Advantage in US Asset Acquisitions 

While international interest in US forest products assets will remain strong, the ability of European operators to execute transactions will diminish as balance sheets remain weak. On a relative basis, Latin American companies will be better positioned to enter the US market and acquire assets.  

Keep Up with Developments in the Pulp, Paper, and Forest Products Market 

Despite ongoing uncertainty, we remain optimistic about what lies ahead for the pulp, paper, and forest products industry in 2026. To stay informed on the latest insights, analysis, and discussions shaping the market, be sure to subscribe to our market newsletter.