Stumpage Market Trends in the US South: Sale and Harvest Data

In 2014, stumpage prices increased for all roundwood products across the US South. Recovery in the US economy and strong export demand for hardwood sawlogs pushed prices higher. In addition to price increases, interesting trends in sales and harvests emerged.

For this series, I’ll slice and dice the data we’ve collected in Forest2Market’s Timber Pricing Service and report on market results in 2014.

• Part 1: Sale and Harvest Trends
• Part 2: Sale Method and Buyer Type
• Part 3: Harvest Type and Tons per Acre
• Part 4: Price

Part 1: Stumpage Market Trends--Sale Offerings and Harvest Acre Size

Just as FIA data confirmed many of the supply and demand trends we expected to see in the market, data from our timber pricing service also confirmed some broader trends taking shape in the market.

Since the start of the Great Recession in 2008, sale offerings have been mixed (Figure 1). Adjusting to falling sawtimber prices, the number of stumpage sales (indexed to 100 in 2008) declined sharply (10%) to an index low of 90 in 2010. In 2014, the number of sales transacted in the market increased, finishing the year 1% above 2008 levels.

Landowners with large land holdings have been selective with their parcel offerings as the average tract size of harvested acres sold in the market has declined (Figure 2). At the height of the housing market in 2005, 69% of F2M’s sale offerings were greater than 50 acres. In 2010, this group was 68% and in 2014, decreased to 67% of all sale offerings.

Since prices have been climbing, this trend indicates that landowners with smaller tracts may have greater opportunity in the market.