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Analysis: SAF Market to Surge Five-Fold to Near $4 Billion by 2028

Analysis: SAF Market to Surge Five-Fold to Near $4 Billion by 2028

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market has quickly risen to become a highly demanded alternative to traditional fossil fuel. With intense growth on the horizon, the renewables industry is only looking upward—it’s moving very quickly.

Current projections see the market growing at an impressive rate within the next four to five years. This past year alone, the market has grown from $520 million in 2023 to an impressive $790 million projected for 2024. 

The over $250 million increase in yearly SAF growth is a testament to the immense demand for sustainable solutions. Research shows that its market share will move at a pace far faster in the near future as global demand surges.

Projections Show Immense SAF Market Increase Over 5 Years

It’s clear that the growth of SAF isn't stopping anytime soon. The forecast for the SAF market points to much more rapid adoption and growth than we’ve seen in the preceding few years.

In fact, research giant Research and Markets predicts the SAF market to reach $3.92 billion in 2028. This marks nearly a five-fold increase in current sales figures within just four years.

Several elements are fueling this growth. Primarily, we're seeing more airlines worldwide deploying SAF. Airports have also provided various benefits and incentives for airline companies to begin transitioning to renewable alternatives.

Moreover, there is a concerted effort to improve the supply chain process for SAF. This will help to lower adoption costs while also increasing availability on a global scale.

Regulations and Mandates Bring Broader SAF Adoption

Stricter environmental regulations also play a big part in steering the market toward a sustainable future. For instance, the European Union's Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II) mandates higher shares of renewable energy in transportation.

This growth reflects a broader commitment from various stakeholders, including governments, environmental groups, and the aviation industry itself. All of these organizations seek to invest in and promote cleaner fuel alternatives.

It's clear that the focus is shifting toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions and building a more sustainable aviation sector. But what is inspiring this change?

The answer to this question pushes the aviation industry to look forward to the future. There is a rise in global initiatives aiming to cut down carbon emissions. To meet this call, businesses are seeking alternatives across their value chains.

Initiatives such as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) are setting stringent targets for reducing aviation emissions. These targets will continue to push airlines to adopt SAF more widely.

Public awareness and pressure for greener operations are also pushing companies to accelerate their sustainability efforts. These elements play a major role in how companies inevitably adjust their operations to accommodate the changes.

Sweeping Changes in Public Perception Help Move SAF to Priority Status

The world is embracing biofuels more than ever before. Recent data from Eurostat shows increased renewable energy consumption in the European Union. In particular, the data highlights a significant rise in renewable energy used in transportation.

The EU’s biofuel adoption is just one of many factors pushing the growth of the SAF market. Similarly, the United States has seen increased funding and policy support for biofuel research and development, reflecting a global trend favoring renewable energy sources.

The key players in the SAF market are investing heavily in the fuel’s future. Current work aims to invest in and adopt innovative technologies to reduce aviation’s overall carbon impact. Much of this reduction comes through mitigating carbon emissions across the value chain.

Which Regions are Adopting SAF the Fastest?

North America, particularly Canada and the US, has remained the largest contributor to the SAF market in the last few years. But analysts say to keep an eye on the Middle East. This region is predicted to be the fastest-growing region for SAF in the next few years.

Several other countries have also invested in this burgeoning market:

  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Russia
  • Spain
  • South Korea
  • United Kingdom

These countries are investing in SAF production and related infrastructure and technology, further enhancing the market's growth prospects.

SAF: The Future of Airline Fuel

The future looks bright for the SAF market as the world strives for a sustainable future. The smart move forward comes by embracing new technologies,diversifying fuel sources, and ultimately championing renewables.

As more countries and companies commit to net-zero targets and renewable energy sources, the role of SAF in combating climate change becomes increasingly significant.

With continued innovation, investment, and international cooperation, the SAF market is poised to play a critical role in the global transition to a more sustainable future.

Get Help for Your Business’s Carbon Transition

It can be easy to feel lost and overwhelmed in the carbon transition.

There’s many complexities that come with biofuels and renewables . Fortunately, ResourceWise has a solution: The A-to-Z Guide: ESG Reporting Landscape.

This guide is your roadmap through the ESG compliance maze. It provides a robust overview to help your business get its footing on all critical elements of ESG compliance.

Your business can also use the guide to inform your decarbonization planning, shedding light on questions you may have.

The ESG A-to-Z Guide is available standalone or bundled with our Carbon Mitigator report, offering key SAF pricing data and expert insights. Follow the link below to get a preview of the guide. From there, get in touch with our team to learn more about how we can help your business navigate through the challenging renewables landscape and achieve continued success.