8 Predictions for the 2024 Global Biofuels Market

The biofuels market has shown remarkable growth and change in the last 6 months alone. The call to transition to renewables grows stronger as more regulations and rules start taking effect.

2024 aims to be the year where we see some seismic shifts taking place across corporations, governments and institutions. What will this mean for this rapidly emerging industry sector?

Below, we’ve put together our list of 8 predictions for the 2024 global biofuels market.

2024 Predictions

1. Chinese Imports Will Face Increased Scrutiny, Slowing Their Flow into the EU Even More

The EU green diesel market should start the new year with Chinese imports under investigation for anti-dumping on top of circumvention.

The import flow of Europe’s largest source of low carbon intensity, circular economy biofuel has already slowed since an anti-circumvention action was launched against Chinese biodiesel in August. Slower imports of biofuel imply higher European imports of waste feedstock, and a higher pricing environment for domestically produced green diesel relative to other international commodity markets.

2. Demand in Non-Mandated Use of Biofuels Will Grow as CSRD Reporting Standards Take Effect

European discretionary demand into non-mandated corporate uses will grow as the European market adjusts to the launch of the CSRD corporate sustainability reporting standard from January 1, 2024. This requires major firms with a footprint in the EU to report their fossil fuel consumption, and an outline of their plan to decarbonize, and how much capital they have allocated to this task.

3. The US Green Diesel Market Will Slow Its Growth and Create a Surplus, While Exports Look to Increase

The US green diesel market will grow marginally at the state and federal level, leaving a surplus of renewable diesel looking to find offtake outside the California and RFS2 mandates. Discretionary demand is picking up fast, however.

Verticals such as aviation, marine and mining have all shown growth potential. US renewable diesel exports to overseas markets are also set to expand.

4. We May See a US Marine Biofuel Blending Mandate

A US marine biofuel blending mandate may be in the cards after a recent bill hit Congress in support of wider blending. The US aviation industry is still trying to figure out its path to market in the absence of clear rules and regulations set by Congress.

5. The Pressure to Decarbonize Will Only Continue to Gain Momentum Globally

Wider international decarbonization demand will be turbo-charged by COP28’s pledge to phase out fossil fuels, backed by the increasing urgency of deteriorating global climate data.

Related: 4 Ways to Turn Your Carbon Transition Goals into Reality

Every major international government has already committed to decarbonization and an eventual fossil fuel phase out. Additionally, new national entrants are speeding into establishing mandates for biofuels in regions previously untouched by the industry like the Arab Gulf and Australia.

6. Low Carbon Fuels Will Surge in Demand with Further Corporate Emission Reduction Goals

Thousands of corporations worldwide have already signed up to stringent emissions reduction targets which require them to hit milestones in 2025 and 2030. Low carbon combustible fuels will be in high demand as a result, with waste-feedstock streams the preferred solution for most blue chips.

7. Resources Like Wood Will See the Spotlight as Renewable Feedstocks

The international fight for low carbon fuels and feedstocks is only just beginning. Feedstocks such as wood and other wastes will start to find their feet in physical carbon mitigation markets, from renewable fuels to carbon dioxide removal.

8. Rules on Future Fuels for Electricity and Hydrogen Will Become More Concrete

Rules are starting to crystalize around future fuels based on electricity and hydrogen in the EU, US and wider international markets. All the economic and sociopolitical indicators point toward increasing adoption with further clarity on rules and regulations driving them.

ResourceWise’s comprehensive coverage of policy and pricing in the emerging future fuels market forecasts a strong outlook for market growth. We’ll see very rapid movement in policy as the market races to scale out enough to replace the fossil fuel industry.

2024: A Big Year Ahead for Biofuels

As we see an increasingly larger share of interest in biofuels, we are optimistic to see what this market will bring in 2024. Subscribe to the ResourceWise Sustainability Blog to stay updated on all the latest news and insights on biofuels and sustainability topics important to your business.