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New Market Analysis: Polyamide Markets on the Upswing

New Market Analysis: Polyamide Markets on the Upswing

Polyamide markets have seen an encouraging upturn in the last few weeks, a welcome development after months of depressed prices and volumes this year. Several factors have combined to bring about recovery in the polyamide markets. We monitor these factors and provide information and analyses in several ways.

Polyamide Supply and Demand Dynamics

One method we use is to correlate world consumption trends with GDP and use historical correlations to forecast future demand. This approach and information on the supply and demand of caprolactam, adipic acid, and HMDA form the basis for a concise summary of expected trends in the PA6 and PA66 industries and key intermediate markets.

This analysis, the Polyamide & Intermediates Strategic Market Overview, has just been published.

The analysis in this overview is based on a detailed database of the PA6 and PA66 industries, fibers and engineering resins as well as the supply position for their intermediates. The Polyamide & Intermediates Supply-Demand Database, which includes detailed data from every year from 1990–2030, covers all countries of relevance and is updated to the post-COVID-19 situation.

Polyamide Price Forecasts and Scenarios

The views on market development and the detailed numerical data of the above two publications are directed to long-term planning for the polyamide industry. Still, additional information is needed for next year’s business plan and budgeting.

For this objective, price forecasts are supplied for PA6 and PA66 and caprolactam for the next eighteen months on a rolling basis in the ChemForesight price forecasts, which provide predictions for three different scenarios of crude oil prices to allow the reader to interpolate between scenarios as markets develop. The forecasts are based on algorithms accounting for energy and feedstock costs, the supply-demand balance, and exogenous factors such as unscheduled plant shutdowns.

Polyamide and Intermediates Market Monitoring

With regard to the close monitoring of markets on a monthly basis, there is the well-known Polyamide & Intermediates Chemical Business Focus. We have been reporting on and analyzing the supply chain from benzene to PA6 and PA66 fibers and resins for the last 40 years. For each link in this chain, the CBF publication describes market conditions, prices, and factors shaping the market to give a full picture of the market dynamics, even for niche products such as polyamide tyrecord.

In the case of caprolactam, markets in Asia are reported on a weekly basis in the Caprolactam Weekly Update.

Keeping abreast of developments has become all the more pressing in the current phase of emergence from a recession, which seasoned observers know can be accompanied by shortages as plants struggle to reach capacity operation or are brought out of sleep mode.

Supply shortages have been observed in recent weeks for caprolactam despite what seems to be more than adequate capacity availability. Shortages have been experienced more acutely for PA66 and its intermediates, especially adiponitrile, through hurricane disruption and plant malfunction.

Staying Ahead in the Polyamide Industry

The best way to keep in touch with all these trends and the factors shaping the polyamide market is to subscribe to some or all of the above publications. The best deal in a negotiation goes to the participant with the best information.

Contact us to learn more about our Polyamide & Intermediates services or purchase the Strategic Market Overview.

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