North American Chemical Market Trends: November 2025 Update

North American chemical producers have maintained their competitive edge throughout 2025, benefiting from abundant low-cost feedstock and resilient domestic demand. Global headwinds—persistent Asian overcapacity, softer export markets, and the lingering impact of elevated interest rates—have capped the pace of recovery, but the region has still delivered modest, steady gains.

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) continues to project U.S. chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) to grow approximately 2% in 2025—despite monthly volatility and softer economic sentiment in Q3—supported by resilient consumer spending, ongoing infrastructure investment, and the ongoing rebound in advanced manufacturing.

Globally, chemical output growth has slowed to 1.9–3.5%, reflecting excess capacity, particularly in Asia. North America remains structurally advantaged, with shale gas keeping feedstock costs favorable and proximity to end-markets supporting operating rates.

Here is the latest view across the major commodity chains we track.

Olefins and Polyolefins

Low-cost ethane continues to provide North American ethylene and polyethylene producers with a clear structural advantage. Polyolefins demand recovered modestly through the year, with global growth accelerating to approximately 4% in 2025 (from 1.7% in 2024). Packaging and consumer goods continue to be the primary drivers of the industry. Light olefins derivatives have maintained balanced fundamentals, and the region experienced no major supply disruptions in Q4.

Aromatics Chain

Global aromatics trade flows have declined approximately 35% over the past five years as Asia consolidates production and the U.S. focuses on domestic and downstream utilization. In North America, demand for benzene, toluene, xylenes, paraxylene, and styrene has remained steady, supported by gasoline blending and derivative offtake. Prices, however, have stayed range-bound, constrained by refinery operating rates and softer refining margins. The paraxylene–PTA–PET chain continues to benefit from packaging demand, while recycling mandates and bio-based alternatives are beginning to reshape the longer-term outlook.

Chlor-Alkali and Vinyls

The North American chlor-alkali and PVC markets have exhibited steady growth, with long-term compound annual growth rates in the 4–6% range, primarily driven by the construction and water treatment sectors. PVC demand is expected to remain constructive for 2025, with growth potentially reaching 2–5% or higher, provided that housing and infrastructure spending remain firm. New capacity additions from Westlake, Formosa, and others are coming online, introducing some oversupply risk if construction activity softens. Caustic soda exports moderated after a strong start to the year, but fundamentals remain balanced.

Ethylene Oxide, Glycols, and Derivatives

Ethylene oxide prices in North America rose approximately 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, supported by solid export demand and healthy derivative consumption. Glycol operating rates have remained stable, with producers implementing selective price increases to offset feedstock pressure. Demand from PET packaging, antifreeze, and polyols has proved resilient, supporting mid-single-digit compound annual growth in the U.S. glycol market.

Polyurethanes and Intermediates

North American isocyanates markets remained subdued throughout 2025. Construction, automotive, and furniture demand stayed below historical averages, constrained by high borrowing costs and cautious buyer behavior. MDI and TDI prices remained largely stable, exhibiting limited upward momentum. A temporary tariff reduction between the U.S. and China provided brief optimism mid-year, but the effect proved short-lived. The polyurethane segment heads into 2026 with muted expectations—only slow and uneven improvement is anticipated at best.

Bio-Materials and Low-Carbon Intermediates

2025 has truly been the breakthrough year for SAF and low-carbon fuel mandates. Policy tailwinds continue to accelerate the production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, with HEFA routes still dominant but facing increasing competition from newer pathways. Investments in bio-ethylene, microbial oils, and circular feedstocks (corn, soy, tallow, used cooking oil) have proceeded at pace. PLA/PHA, pine chemicals, glycerine, and fatty derivatives have seen meaningful innovation and commercial scaling activity.