Japan’s Tissue Market: Growth in Demand Amid Population Decline

Japan is often viewed as a mature, slow-growth economy—yet one of its most essential consumer categories continues to defy expectations: tissue and hygiene products. Even as the country faces demographic headwinds, the tissue sector remains surprisingly dynamic, offering valuable signals not only for domestic players but also for global producers watching how developed markets evolve.

Demand Growth in an Aging, Shrinking Society

Japan’s population is shrinking faster than nearly any other developed nation, with a decline of -0.43% in 2024 and a median age approaching 50, making the country a global model for aging societies. Yet tissue consumption continues to rise rather than fall. This suggests that higher per-capita usage and lifestyle-driven demand can offset demographic decline.

Despite decades of slow economic growth, Japan’s wealth and GDP per capita have continued to improve, supporting domestic tissue demand. Per-capita consumption reached about 21.5 kg in 2024, ranking among the highest globally. At the same time, innovations like automated wash-and-dry toilets are shaping consumption patterns—but they remain unlikely to replace toilet paper in high-traffic restrooms where speed and access matter most.

Competitive Pressures: Imports, Costs, and Aging Infrastructure

On the supply side, Japan’s tissue market is fragmented, with no producer holding more than 13% market share. Mills are spread across nearly 190 tissue machines at about 80 sites, but many of these machines are older and run at lower speeds than competitors in Indonesia, South Korea, or Taiwan—limiting technical efficiency.

Imports also play a growing role. In 2024, tissue imports exceeded exports by 20:1, with most incoming volume sourced from China and Indonesia. Meanwhile, production costs in Japan remain higher than in lower-cost Asian producers, largely due to elevated energy expenses. Still, Japan benefits from relatively low carbon emissions per ton of finished tissue thanks to a cleaner electricity grid—an increasingly important advantage in sustainability-driven markets.

Want the Full Competitive Picture?

Japan’s tissue market is full of contradictions: demand growth amid population decline, modernization alongside aging infrastructure, and strong domestic consumption despite heavy reliance on imports. For industry participants across the global tissue value chain, understanding these forces is essential. ResourceWise’s report, “Japan’s Tissue Market: Growth in Demand Amid Population Decline,” explores these dynamics in depth—covering production economics, machine benchmarking, trade flows, and future competitiveness. Download the full report to access the complete analysis.