From Mandates to Markets: How to Leverage Voluntary Biofuel Demand

With biofuels policy shifting rapidly across the globe, energy retailers are rethinking their long-term strategies. One such player, a mid-sized Scandinavian fuel retailer operating primarily in Sweden, found itself at a crossroads when the Swedish government slashed biofuel mandates in 2023.

The shift dropped the required blend level to one-fifth of its previous target. This enormous change created several new challenges for the firm to navigate.

Fortunately, what could have been a setback became a strategic inflection point.

Rather than retreat from renewable fuels, the company leaned into them. They pivoted from mandate-dependent compliance to a voluntary, value-based approach.

Powered by Prima CarbonZero’s deep market intelligence, the company restructured its biofuel offerings, rebranded its sustainability messaging, and tapped into corporate demand in a way that would reshape its entire outlook.

The Challenge: Collapsing Mandates, Uncertain Demand

When mandates dropped, the company initially saw renewable fuel demand soften. The change was the most significant in HVO volumes. Yet market data from Prima CarbonZero showed an unexpected signal:

HVO disappearance in Sweden rebounded sharply in 2024, despite the mandate cuts. Analysts attributed the rebound to corporate decarbonization commitments, not government mandates.

According to Prima CarbonZero analysts, companies in transport, shipping, and logistics sectors continued sourcing low-carbon fuels to meet internal greenhouse gas reduction targets and fulfill EU-level sustainability reporting directives like the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, or CSRD.

The Pivot: Voluntary Demand and Value-Based Pricing

Guided by these insights, the fuel retailer shifted its focus to three strategic pillars:

1. Customer Targeting and Value Redefinition

Rather than emphasizing compliance with mandates, the company began marketing its fuels as “carbon intensity-based solutions.” Using emissions scoring data and feedstock traceability from Prima CarbonZero, it created customized low-CI fuel portfolios tailored to client sustainability targets.

2. Partnerships with Decarbonizing Corporates

The retailer built long-term offtake agreements with regional fleet operators, food logistics companies, and public transit authorities, all seeking scope 1 emissions reductions. These contracts included feedstock-level transparency and emissions reporting plug-ins made possible through Prima CarbonZero’s Monitoring, Reporting, and Verifying (MRV)-compatible datasets.

3. Premium Pricing through Verified Value

With the data showing growing price bifurcation in carbon markets between “avoided emissions” and “mitigated emissions,” the retailer positioned biofuels at the higher end of the carbon value spectrum.

Biofuels, especially those using Annex IX feedstocks, earned higher pricing due to their direct emissions mitigation. This understanding is supported by Prima’s emissions valuation benchmarking.

The Outcome: Resilient Revenue and Long-Term Opportunity

In just over 12 months, the company had replaced its lost mandate volumes with voluntary demand while improving margin per liter on renewable products by an estimated 14%. Its HVO product line, backed by MRV-grade emissions data, became a differentiator not just in fuel, but in sustainability strategy.

Corporate clients valued the retailer’s ability to integrate fuel purchases directly into ESG reports. The approach offered verifiable carbon savings backed by third-party intelligence.

Data-Driven Decarbonization is the New Default

This case study highlights how a properly informed strategy, backed by robust data and insights, can help companies pivot when the dial moves unexpectedly.

To speak to this point even further, on July 1 2025, Sweden adjusted its course and increased mandates back up to 10% in both diesel and traditional fuel:

While the improvement moves the dial in the right direction, it highlights an important point to consider. Mandates like this can change unexpectedly and sometimes unpredictably. Accordingly, reliance on these standards to guarantee demand carries some level of risk.

The case study reflects a fundamental shift from a sole reliance on mandates. As businesses grow more climate-conscious and public accountability expands through EU and global reporting standards, decarbonization is becoming an economic engine of its own.

Tools like Prima CarbonZero provide near real-time clarity on pricing, feedstock availability, and emissions pathways. Using this data, retailers no longer need to guess about where the value lies.

The path forward is clearer (and cleaner) than ever. Prima CarbonZero can help your business make the best choices in a turbulent market. Learn more today and schedule a demo to see how it works.