From Feedstock to Flight: How Geopolitics Is Reshaping SAF Pathways

The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) story has always been one of constraints. Limited feedstocks, emerging technologies and policy-driven demand have all played a significant role in its development.

But in 2026, a new force is reshaping the equation: geopolitics. Specifically, the ripple effects of the Iran war has directly impacted global energy and trade flows.

What was already a tight system is now being stress-tested. And for aviation stakeholders, the implications go far beyond fuel prices. They strike at the very foundation of SAF: feedstock pathways.

A Market Built on Fragile Inputs

SAF is generally seen as aviation’s most viable near-term decarbonization lever. It offers lifecycle emissions reductions of up to 60–90% and can be used as a drop-in fuel within existing infrastructure.

However, its scalability depends on something far less stable: the availability and integrity of feedstocks.

Today’s dominant pathway, HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), relies heavily on:

• UCO (Used Cooking Oil)
• Animal Fats and Tallow
• Vegetable Oils (increasingly constrained)

These inputs are not just limited; they are globally traded, policy-sensitive, and increasingly contested across sectors.

Even under optimistic assumptions, SAF production is expected to fall short of demand, leaving a structural gap as aviation targets ~500 million tons of fuel consumption by 2050.

In other words: the system was already tight before geopolitics entered the picture.

The Iran War Effect: Disrupting the Feedstock Map

The Iran war has introduced a new layer of volatility into global energy systems. And that volatility is now spilling into biofuels.

Three key disruptions are emerging:

1. Fossil Fuel Displacement Is Crowding SAF Demand

As traditional jet fuel markets face disruption through supply constraints, trade rerouting, and price volatility, regions like Europe are increasingly looking to secure alternative fuel sources. This also includes SAF.

Recent developments suggest that policymakers are exploring expanded imports (including from the US) to stabilize supply.

Implication: SAF is no longer just a decarbonization tool. It is becoming part of energy security strategy, accelerating demand faster than feedstock supply can respond.

2. Trade Flows Are Being Rewired

The SAF ecosystem depends on highly globalized feedstock flows:

• UCO from China and Southeast Asia
• Tallow from North America and Australia
• Vegetable oils from Latin America and Southeast Asia

Geopolitical instability, particularly in energy corridors, reshapes shipping routes, trade costs, and availability.

Implication: feedstocks are being redirected, repriced, or stranded, creating regional imbalances:

• Europe becomes more import-dependent
• Asia retains strategic control over key waste streams
• The US gains relative strength through domestic supply

This reinforces a core truth: feedstock geography plays an enormous role in how the SAF market functions.

3. Certification and Traceability Pressures Are Intensifying

As flows become more complex, so do concerns around:

• Feedstock fraud (especially UCO mislabeling)
• Double counting
• Sustainability compliance under frameworks like RED III

In a tighter market, the incentive to stretch definitions or reinterpret pathways grows.

Implication: the definition of “sustainable” feedstocks is no longer static. It is being continuously renegotiated under policy, market pressure, and now geopolitical urgency.

Pathways Under Pressure

Each SAF pathway responds differently to this new environment.

HEFA: Mature but Constrained

HEFA remains the dominant commercial pathway. But its reliance on finite waste oils caps its global potential at roughly 30–35 million tons annually.

With increased competition from renewable diesel and marine fuels, and now with energy security concerns, HEFA feedstocks will be the first to tighten.

Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ): Expanding but Inefficient

ATJ offers a broader feedstock base (corn, sugarcane, residues), but lower conversion efficiency currently limits real output.

Nevertheless, in a geopolitically constrained environment, regions with strong agricultural systems (US, Brazil) gain strategic advantage.

Gasification and Fischer–Tropsch: High Potential, High Complexity

Residue-based pathways (ag waste, forestry, MSW) offer scalability. But they require several factors for viability:

• Significant Capital Investment
• Stable Supply Chains
• Long Development Timelines

These pathways are less exposed to global oil shocks but more vulnerable to project financing and policy uncertainty.

eSAF (Power-to-Liquid): The Strategic Endgame

Unlike biomass-based pathways, eSAF is not constrained by physical feedstocks. Instead, it depends on multiple factors:

• Renewable Electricity
• Green Hydrogen
• Captured CO₂

This makes it uniquely attractive in a geopolitically fragmented world.

Implication: the Iran war and similar disruptions may accelerate the long-term shift toward eSAF. Particularly, this will occur in regions that offer:

• Cheap Renewable Power (South America, Middle East, China)
• Industrial CO₂ Sources
• Policy Support for Electrofuels

The Bigger Shift: From Optimization to Competition

Before 2026, SAF strategy was largely about optimization:

• Securing Feedstocks
• Improving Yields
• Navigating Policy

Now, it is increasingly about competition:

• Between Regions (US, EU, Asia)
• Between Sectors (Aviation, Marine, Road Fuels)
• Between Pathways (HEFA, eSAF, advanced biofuels)

And underpinning all of this is a fundamental constraint. The same limited pool of sustainable inputs must now serve a growing number of decarbonization pathways under an increasingly unstable global state.

What This Means for Market Participants

For stakeholders across the SAF value chain, three priorities are emerging:

1. Diversification Is No Longer Optional

Relying on a single feedstock or pathway is increasingly risky. The future lies in portfolio strategies across multiple inputs and technologies.

2. Regional Strategy Matters More Than Ever

The global SAF market is fragmenting into regional ecosystems:

• US as Feedstock-rich and Policy-supported
• Europe as Policy-driven and Import-dependent
• Asia with Feedstock Control and Refining Hubs

Understanding these dynamics is critical to navigating supply risk.

3. Market Intelligence Is a Competitive Advantage

As feedstock flows shift and pathways evolve, visibility becomes essential:

• Where are inputs coming from?
• How are they priced?
• Which pathways are scaling—and where?

In a market defined by uncertainty, clarity is the edge. Market intelligence from platforms like Prima CarbonZero help to shed light on this uncertainty with key biofuel and feedstock data alongside expert analysis.

The New Reality of SAF

The pathway from feedstock to fuel has never been simple. But it is becoming more complex and more consequential.

Geopolitical disruption is not just influencing SAF markets. It is reshaping them at the structural level, redefining:

• Feedstock Sources
• Feedstock Value
• Feedstock Pathways

The result is a market that is no longer just supply-constrained but strategically contested. And in that environment, success will depend on one thing above all: understanding the full system, from feedstock origin to final fuel, before the market moves.

Go Deeper: Mapping the Path from Feedstock to Fuel

Understanding how geopolitics, policy, and market dynamics intersect is only part of the equation. The real challenge and opportunity lies in tracing how feedstocks move through complex production pathways to become certified low-carbon fuels.

Our latest eBook, From Feedstock to Fuel: Navigating Decarbonization Pathways Across Aviation and Marine, breaks this down in detail. The guide maps key SAF and marine fuel pathways, regional feedstock dynamics, and the constraints shaping scalability.

Download the full report and you’ll get:

• The major SAF production pathways and their feedstock requirements
• Regional supply dynamics and trade flows
• The constraints and opportunities defining future fuel markets

Download the eBook now and get a clearer view of how today’s feedstocks will power tomorrow’s fuels.