China Acetic Acid, VAM and Caustic Soda Outlook 2026: Oversupply Sets the Tone

Temporary export surges and feedstock shocks lifted several Chinese chemical markets in H1 2026, but structural oversupply quickly reasserted itself.

Key Takeaways

• Acetic acid prices were weak for most of H1.
• Chinese VAM prices were stable early in the year because producers were operating at low rates.
• Caustic soda prices trended lower and repeatedly reached five-year lows.

Acetic Acid: A Temporary Rally Could Not Overcome Surplus

Acetic acid prices were weak for most of H1. Higher methanol costs and strong export demand lifted prices to a two-year high in early April, but oversupply returned as geopolitical pressure eased. Producers lowered operating rates to roughly 70–75% in May and June, yet weak downstream demand prevented a sustained recovery.

VAM: Export Demand Produced a Dramatic but Brief Spike

Chinese VAM prices were stable early in the year because producers were operating at low rates. Supply disruption outside China then created large export opportunities, and domestic prices roughly doubled. Customs data indicate April and May exports rose 350–400% from March. Once overseas supply improved, export negotiations dropped and domestic prices fell sharply.

Caustic Soda: High Operating Rates Met Weak Demand

Caustic soda prices trended lower and repeatedly reached five-year lows. High plant utilization and new capacity increased output while downstream demand remained subdued. A temporary export increase in April supported only a brief rally.

H2 Outlook

Additional capacity is expected across all three chains. Acetic acid producers may keep operating rates near 70–80%; VAM rates may remain around 70–75%; and chlor-alkali producers could make further rate cuts if weak chlorine and caustic soda economics persist. Supply discipline, rather than demand growth, is likely to provide the main price floor.