1.5°C Global Temp Increase Is Inevitable: What It Means for Biofuels

The world entered the era of the Paris Agreement with a bold moral and technical commitment: to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. That target wasn’t chosen because it felt easy. It was chosen because the science shows every fraction of a degree matters for lives, livelihoods and global ecosystems.

But today we must face an uncomfortable truth: despite all the progress, it is increasingly clear that we will exceed the 1.5 °C threshold. That does not strictly mean failure in our collective global efforts to mitigate global warming. Instead, it highlights the ever-growing urgency and complexity of continuing to address this challenge.

How We Got Here: Beyond the 1.5 °C

A recent announcement from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its flagship report World Energy Outlook 2025 lays out this difficult news. Under current policies and trajectories, we are no longer on a clear path to stay below the 1.5 °C hard limit.

Why is this the case?

1. The IEA’s scenarios show that even in the very ambitious Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) pathway, warming peaks above 1.6 °C before gradually returning to ~1.5 °C late this century. This scenario is only possible if unproven large-scale carbon dioxide removal technologies are deployed.
2. The renewable energy revolution is real and impressive, yet it is being outpaced by growth in energy demand overall. The demand is especially high in electricity, data services, air-conditioning, and transport in emerging economies.
3. Fossil fuel consumption is still near record highs. The report notes that oil, gas and coal all hit new highs even as renewables grew. In short, the continued growth of industry demands growth that outpaces the expansion of biofuels and renewables.

To summarize: the world has heeded the call to decarbonize and actively mitigate CO₂ output with the use of green power generation, renewable feedstocks, and biofuels. But the pace in which we’re achieving it can’t keep up with fuel demand to successfully remain below the 1.5 °C threshold.

What It Means to Breach 1.5 °C

While warnings and calls-to-action are grim, exceeding 1.5 °C does not mean the end of the world. Yet it does raise the stakes significantly higher.

Drawing on recent commentary from climate science:

• Exceeding the 1.5 °C threshold turns what was a target into an overshoot scenario: we may pass 1.5 °C, then attempt to come back down, which is a far riskier path.
• Overshoot matters because every additional fraction of a degree increases the probability of tipping points for irreversible ecosystem changes and more extreme weather events.
• The moral dimension is stark: according to the United Nations Secretary-General, the failure to give serious effect to 1.5 °C is a “moral failure and deadly negligence.”

The Critical Importance of Continued Vigilance

Even if the 1.5 °C limit slips past us, what we do now still matters. The world must continue in its pursuit of decarbonization even more strongly than we already have.

Benefits of Past/Current Decarbonization Efforts

• The IEA’s Global Energy Review shows that in 2024, CO₂ emissions hit a record high. At the same time, clean energy technologies prevented an even larger increase in emissions estimated at roughly 2.6 billion tons of CO₂.
• Renewables have set new deployment records for 23 consecutive years. Solar PV, wind, bioenergy, hydropower are all scaling. The age of electricity is arriving.
• Economy growth continues, while emissions growth has even slowed in some advanced economies. That shows achievable pathways toward net-zero carbon exist.

Where the World Moves Now for Carbon Mitigation

Based on these findings, several important imperatives follow:

1. Further accelerate the deployment and scale of proven technologies. Solar, wind, storage, heat-pumps, and electric vehicles must take center stage.
2. Drive down remaining fossil fuel dependence. Focus on emerging economies where demand still rises, and ensure coal, oil and gas decline sharply.
3. Keep primary focus on “peak warming” and minimizing overshoot. Reduce how high we exceed the 1.5 °C level and how long we remain above it. The shorter and shallower the overshoot, the better the outcomes.
4. Invest in carbon removal, nature-based solutions, and adaptation. Because mitigation alone won’t erase all of the overshoot risk or the impacts we will inevitably face, we must adapt and innovate to decrease negative impacts.
5. Maintain an equitable, globally-led effort. The shift in energy demand toward India, Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa means justice and capacity building must be aggressively pursued and maintained.
6. Resilience and adaptation. Since the world will face more warming than we hoped, adaptation to impacts like more serious storms, droughts, and sea-level rise is unavoidable.

What This Means for the Biofuels Industry

The recognition that the world will overshoot 1.5 °C doesn’t diminish the role of biofuels; it amplifies it.

If anything, the IEA’s latest modelling clarifies something the energy sector has felt for years: liquid fuels aren’t disappearing any time soon. Accordingly, every credible pathway to limit peak warming relies on accelerating the shift from fossil-based liquids toward lower-carbon alternatives.

Here are the key implications for the biofuels market:

1. Demand for Low-Carbon Liquid Fuels Will Keep Rising

Even in the IEA’s more conservative scenarios (STEPS and CPS), global oil demand remains high through 2050. That means sectors like aviation, shipping, heavy road transport, and certain industrial applications will continue to rely on liquid fuels. This will boost demand for liquid alternatives like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

2. Mandates and Standards Will Tighten in an Overshoot World

When climate targets become harder to meet, policymakers typically respond with stronger enforcement and more ambitious standards.

You can expect several outcomes from these shifts:

• Expanded national blending mandates
• More aggressive carbon-intensity reduction targets
• Greater scrutiny on feedstock sustainability
• Increased incentives for advanced biofuels (e.g., waste-derived)

Overshoot doesn’t weaken climate policy. It shifts the focus toward aggressive emissions reduction and avoided warming, which puts biofuels squarely in the policy spotlight.

3. Advanced Biofuels Will Become Increasingly Necessary

The IEA’s NZE scenario depends on sharp and immediate declines in fossil fuel use. Such declines are simply unattainable without significant scaling of:

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
• Renewable Diesel (HVO/RD)
• Cellulosic Ethanol
• Bio-Naphtha, Bio-LPG and Other Renewable Outputs

These fuels take pressure off sectors that cannot electrify quickly and allow hard-to-abate industries to make real cuts in carbon intensity.

4. Feedstock Pressure Will Increase and Drive Innovation

As demand grows, so does the pressure on feedstock supply chains. Accordingly, more pressure will:

• Accelerate the shift toward waste- and residue-based feedstocks
• Push greater transparency in global supply chains
• Increase interest in municipal waste, carbon-capture-enhanced pathways, and hybrid biofuel/biogenic-CO₂ systems
• Encourage co-processing and biorefinery integration with existing fossil infrastructure

These pressures can help the industry to rapidly modernize to meet evolving standards.

The Bottom Line for Biofuels

Breaching 1.5 °C does not reduce the importance of the biofuels sector in any way. Instead, it makes it more critical than ever.

Biofuels…

• Are scalable today
• Work with existing infrastructure
• Can deliver real reductions in lifecycle emissions
• Serve an essential role where electrification is slow or constrained

In an overshoot world, the question is no longer whether we should expand biofuels. It’s how fast we can scale them while ensuring sustainability, transparency, and global equity.

Why Staying Engaged Matters

Although the IEA’s news isn’t exactly positive, overshoot does not mean surrender. What it means is that the fight doesn’t get easier tomorrow… it grows more challenging. But hope lies ahead.

The fact that the global temperature increase will reach 1.6 °C instead of a larger number like 3 °C or 4 °C reflects the work we’ve done and are doing. The cost of renewables keep falling as well, demonstrating that investors and consumers increasingly demand clean energy. When viewed together, we see a much stronger outlook on where our climate future is headed.

Even if the world passes the 1.5 °C boundary, we can respond. We can still limit the worst-case scenarios, reduce human suffering, protect vulnerable communities, and build a cleaner, fairer energy system.

The 1.5 °C target may have slipped, but the purpose behind it remains: a livable planet, abundant life, and equity for all. That purpose is still within our reach as long as we keep fighting to make a positive change throughout the world.

Join Us: 2026 Biofuels Market Outlook Live Webinar

If today’s climate outlook makes anything clear, it’s that the path forward will demand sharper insight, faster action, and smarter strategy. To help industry leaders navigate what’s coming, ResourceWise is hosting a live webinar, Biofuels Market Outlook 2026, on December 4 at 10:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. UTC).

In this session, our analysts will break down the latest policy shifts, feedstock dynamics, and demand trends shaping global biofuels markets. You'll get all the tools you need to successfully plan for a rapidly changing landscape.

The live webinar is fast approaching, so we encourage you to register now to secure your spot.