Volume of southern yellow pine framing lumber--for both orders and shipments--dropped dramatically over the last three weeks; steep price increases level off.
The volume of both orders and shipments of southern yellow pine framing lumber fell dramatically for the week of March 4, according to Mill2Market, Forest2Market's lumber price service. Ordered volume fell 38 percent below recent weekly averages and 16 percent below the previous week's total. Shipment volume fell 28 percent below recent weekly averages and 17 percent below the previous week's total.
Prices reflected the decrease in demand. Southern yellow pine framing lumber increased an average of just $3.87 per thousand board feet over the last two weeks. The average weekly price increase for the four weeks before that was $15.78 per thousand board feet. Since the last week of January, prices have increased a total of $58.31 per thousand board feet.
"If you compare volume and price data (use 'Comparison of Lumber Price and Volume Data' link below), you can see the exact time when the market began to cool," says Daniel Stuber, who oversees data quality and analytics at Forest2Market. "Because we collect volume associated with orders and shipments, we are able to see exactly how the market is moving."
"Buyers stepped into the market after the Christmas holiday, as demonstrated by the increase we saw in orders," Stuber explains. "On the supply side, mills were unable to fill the orders, and prices jumped. The turnaround began during the last week of January, when orders fell though shipments continued to climb. Since that week, orders have deflated quickly and shipments have followed suit. Prices, though continuing their upward trend, have recently shown signs of weakening, an indication that we're either at or near the peak."
Links:
- Comparison of Lumber Price and Volume Data
- Mill2Market—Weekly Lumber Price Report
