In a recent report from Prima CarbonZero’s Green Diesel Europe Report, a significant upstream signal has emerged that could reshape the near-term outlook for Asia’s bio bunker market. This signal, sourced through our deep focus on the upstream biofuels and feedstocks value chain, is the kind of early market intelligence our customers rely on to stay ahead of shifts before they’re visible in downstream trends.
After a period of subdued activity in China’s biodiesel market, a bid for UCOME at $1,150/t (countered at $1,160/t) has reawakened maritime freight buyer interest. This Is of particular interest to those eyeing Singapore blending opportunities. Current guidance now sits in the $1,160–$1,170/t range.
This price action underscores the unsustainability of the current narrow spread between UCO and UCOME at less than $100/t. The instability will only increase given the pressure on producer margins once demand reemerges. We’ll see an especially high interest if feedstock prices remain supported as well. In July, the UCOME premium over UCO averaged just $80.9/t, down from $118.4/t in Q2 2025.
The price relationship between UCOME and UCO directly impacts Singapore’s key B24-VLSFO bio-bunker grade. July’s lower Singapore bio-bunker premium compared to Q2 aligns with the reduced UCOME premium over UCO.
However, Prima CarbonZero’s upstream analysis suggests this is likely a temporary lull. As stronger buying interest resumes, both the Singapore bio-bunker premium and the UCOME/UCO spread are poised for recovery.
Liquid bio-bunker sales in Singapore hit a record 408,090 tons in Q2 2025, representing 3% of total liquid bunker sales. This data highlights this growing market sector as a direct part of a steady upward trend.
While the timing of a rebound in premiums remains uncertain, the upcoming July bunker sales data release will be the market’s next official demand checkpoint.
Singapore, the world’s largest maritime biofuel hub, has now reached a stage of maturity in its blending activity that allows for meaningful trend analysis.
Market evidence shows a steadily expanding bio-bunkering segment. Blenders have become increasingly attuned to the cost differential between biofuels and fossil bunker fuels. This sensitivity is influencing monthly blending decisions as profiles are adjusted in response to shifts in relative pricing.
Over the past year, the additional cost of using UCOME-based bio-bunkers compared to conventional VLSFO (very low sulfur fuel oil) has risen significantly. After holding at relatively moderate levels through late last year, the premium surged during the second quarter and is now approaching some of the highest levels observed in recent history.
This reflects the different forces shaping renewable versus fossil fuel markets. VLSFO prices continue to be driven by the broader fossil fuel oil complex. These levels have generally trended lower over the past year amid improving fundamentals, highlighted by occasional spikes linked to geopolitical developments.
At the same time, higher-than-usual Singapore residual fuel oil inventories are exerting additional downward pressure on conventional fuel prices. These have been supported by shifts in import and export patterns.
These developments showcase precisely the type of early market shift ResourceWise’s bio-bunkering direction indicator is designed to capture. For a strategic advantage, it’s critical to assess these trends long before such changes become clear from downstream data alone.
By focusing on upstream dynamics, Prima CarbonZero delivers precision insights that help customers anticipate movements, adapt strategies, and secure an edge in a competitive biofuels market.
Learn more about all the ways Prima CarbonZero can inform your bio-bunkering strategy, and book a no-cost demo of the platform today.