The UK’s push toward Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is accelerating. And that push is beginning to show up directly in the market with surging prices.
The Department for Transport (DfT) has released the second edition of its provisional 2025 SAF report, providing the clearest picture yet of how obligated parties are progressing toward this year’s targets.
Covering data through mid-September, the report offers updated insight into jet fuel demand, SAF uptake, fuel origin, and technology pathways. While the figures remain provisional, they are currently the best indicator of whether the UK is on track to meet its 2% blend mandate.
Through mid-September, the UK consumed 158 million liters of SAF. On its own, that headline number suggests positive momentum. But volume alone doesn’t tell the full compliance story, unfortunately.
To understand how suppliers are actually performing, we need to compare SAF uptake against:
Looking on a broader scale, the picture is more complicated.
Across the year so far, only one reporting period exceeded the mandated 2% blend rate. The national average currently sits at 1.63%, far below the target.
With limited time remaining in 2025, obligated parties are now under significant pressure to make up lost ground. And that scramble is reshaping the market.
As suppliers attempt to catch up, SAF prices are skyrocketing.
The year prior, SAF prices remained relatively stable at $1,800/t. From July onward, prices spiked from that stable $1,800 to more than $2,900/t. This rapid increase reflects the intense, last-minute push by obligated parties who delayed procurement and are now racing to close their compliance gap.
The cost implications are stark:
That’s a $22/t difference simply due to timing. For an industry where margins often live in the single digits, this is a substantial penalty.
The lesson is clear: SAF supply planning can no longer be an afterthought. Those who delay are paying for it (literally).
To understand the supply gap more clearly, we can estimate the remaining jet fuel demand for the full year.
At a mandated 2% SAF blend, the UK must supply a total of 277 million liters of SAF.
With 158 million liters already consumed by mid-September, the remaining requirement is 119 million liters. Working through the math, this means 43% of the annual SAF requirement must be delivered in the final 29% of the year.
This mismatch between supply timing and regulatory deadlines is the clearest explanation for the current price surge.
The UK’s SAF market is entering a formative phase. Mandates are tightening while uptake is accelerating. Accordingly, many suppliers are also learning that compliance requires forward planning.
Prices are rising not because SAF availability collapsed, but because demand is being compressed into a narrow window as obligated parties try to catch up.
As long as this pattern continues, volatility will remain a feature of the market.
But the bigger takeaway is this: the surge in price is a sign of surging demand. The UK’s SAF mandate is working exactly as intended. It is driving real uptake, stimulating the market, and sending strong signals to producers.
The question now is whether suppliers will adapt their procurement strategies in time for the next compliance cycle.
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