In 2024, prominent integrated producers in the acrylic value chain with a significant global footprint reported shrinking profits from polymer manufacturing, excluding some niche applications. In addition, gains have been disproportionate to product development and marketing costs, as low double-digit earnings, which barely exceed 10% and could be single-digit in Q1 2025, do not even compensate for efforts and expenditure.
Since the consumption of mass-volume acrylic dispersion or adhesive products has suffered due to economic headwinds leading to underutilization and eroded profitability of monomer plants, acrylic polymers have sustained the value further down the chain, providing crucial marginality.
However, recent years have brought even fiercer competition, resulting in emerging acrylic polymer suppliers advancing their portfolios and catching up with global market leaders in terms of quality. Simultaneously, end users have patiently approved and implemented more and more substitutes to expand their basket of sourcing options. Now, when affordability for the final customer is key for winning business, purchasers simply draw from their pool of alternatives.
Trade data excluding PMMA and superabsorbents shows that Europe still has a significant 154.7 kt annual surplus of acrylic polymer volumes. However, China rivalled the region, achieving a surplus of 225.2 kt in 2024, and Europe has lost as much as 40.8% (106.6 kt) of its excess volume since 2019, when this region's surplus stood at 261.3 kt.
Developments have followed a similar pattern in North America, where the US acrylic polymer trade surplus has shrunk by 69% over the past five years from 97 kt to just under 30 kt. In the same period, Canada's deficit has grown almost proportionally by 57% from 64.7 kt to 101.7 kt, while Mexico's deficit has been relatively flat. It is evident that Canada must have been a door to the North American market for suppliers from other regions at the expense of the United States. The USMCA rules might have been violated, too.
Growing Chinese capacities and know-how capabilities have taken over market share from other Asian suppliers. The size of India's main regional consuming market has changed only slightly, as demand growth is far behind the pace of supply expansions.
The Middle East, Africa, and Latin America remain sourcing regions and are penetrated by acrylic polymer producers from China, although Turkey is an exception, having become a supplier in the last five years.
The OrbiChem360 platform from ResourceWise also shows changing patterns in trade flows for upstream acrylic esters. The weights of supplying countries and relationships between them in 2024 are different from those witnessed five years ago. The directions of global market evolution are often the same as described above in acrylic polymers.
The era of reshoring, protectionism, and self-efficiency that seems to have begun may eventually bring a reversal of fortune for businesses in the acrylic value chain and preserve or restore the value.
Will all these players be able to survive until this happens? No.
Will there be enough room for all existing participants? No way.
Therefore, rightsizing is a likely scenario.