The United States has launched a new strategy to expand international demand for American biofuels, signaling that overseas markets will play a growing role in the sector's future.
Announced by US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins at the 17th annual Growth Energy Biofuels Summit, the American Biofuels Trade Outlook centers on four priorities: increasing on-road ethanol blending, removing foreign restrictions on US biofuels, targeting high-impact markets, and shaping international aviation and maritime regulations.
The strategy arrives as US ethanol exports reached record levels. The country exported 2.18 billion gallons in 2025, up 13% from the previous record in 2024. Exports represented 13.3% of US production, making international demand an increasingly critical part of the market balance.
Despite these positive trends, further growth is not guaranteed. Many prospective markets protect domestic producers, restrict crop-based fuels, or lack the infrastructure needed to turn blending targets into consumption. The new outlook recognizes that biofuels' global role will depend as much on market access and regulatory treatment as on production and price.
The first pillar combines two objectives: encouraging E10 adoption in new markets and stabilizing access to countries that already have E10 policies.
The USDA sees potential breakthrough markets in Latin America and growth opportunities in Southeast Asia. E10 offers an accessible route to significant new demand because it can generally be used in vehicles without the specialized equipment required for higher ethanol blends. It can also help importing countries in several ways:
Diversify fuel supplies
Reduce petroleum dependence
Meet octane requirements
At the same time, the USDA plans to address policy implementation challenges across approximately 20 existing E10 markets. Announced blending targets do not always translate into physical demand. Infrastructure gaps, inconsistent standards, delayed mandates, and difficult import procedures can all limit consumption.
This pillar seeks both expansion and stability: opening new markets while ensuring that established blending policies create reliable demand.
The second pillar aims to challenge foreign policies that limit the use of US crop-based biofuels. The European Union is a particular focus because its treatment of crop-based fuels can restrict their contribution to transport decarbonization targets.
These rules matter beyond conventional road fuels. Restrictions tied to feedstocks or lifecycle greenhouse gas calculations can also affect whether US-produced fuels qualify for use in aviation and marine markets.
For the US, removing such barriers could broaden the range of applications available to corn- and soybean-based fuels. But this will require more than conventional trade promotion.
Many restrictions are embedded in climate and sustainability policy. Accordingly, US exporters must demonstrate both environmental performance and commercial competitiveness.
The third pillar will deploy USDA market-access programs and the America First Trade Promotion Program to pursue strategic growth. India was highlighted as a potential market for on-road expansion, alongside Indonesia, Japan, and Vietnam.
The USDA is seeking access to a distinct and politically sensitive part of the Indian market. The same tension may emerge elsewhere: countries can value ethanol's energy-security benefits while using blending mandates to support domestic farmers and producers.
Federal trade programs may help build commercial relationships and address technical barriers. However, the largest gains will depend on whether target countries change policies that favor local supply.
The fourth pillar calls for greater US engagement with the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization. The objective is to secure fair treatment for US biofuels as global aviation and shipping regulations evolve.
These sectors could become significant sources of low-carbon fuel demand because both are difficult to electrify. Access will depend on how international frameworks calculate lifecycle emissions, recognize different production pathways, and treat crop-based feedstocks.
Lower-carbon farming practices, renewable process energy, and carbon capture could improve the position of US fuels. Their value in international markets, however, will depend on whether regulatory frameworks recognize those emissions reductions.
For US producers, the outlook confirms that exports are becoming structurally important. Domestic gasoline demand may offer limited long-term growth as vehicle efficiency improves and electrification advances. International blending programs provide another outlet for producers and, indirectly, for US corn and soybean growers.
Additionally, current economic strains between Iran and the US have placed added pressure on domestic fuel markets, driving average fuel costs to record levels. These considerations have made the calls for alternative fuel sources, including biofuels, a much larger part of the conversation.
Globally, the strategy reflects biofuels’ evolution from primarily domestic policy tools into more widely traded energy commodities. Yet the market will not become fully open. Governments will continue to balance competitively priced imports against domestic agricultural, energy-security, and industrial priorities.
Competition will increasingly extend beyond price. Market share will also depend on verified carbon intensity, reliable supply, and compatibility with national and international rules. The outlook's emphasis on both trade barriers and global regulation reflects that shift.
The American Biofuels Trade Outlook identifies four credible routes to growth. But its commercial effect will depend on measurable policy changes and physical trade.
The outlook serves as an important statement of intent, not a guarantee of demand. Its progress will show whether the US can convert record exports into a broader and more durable role for American biofuels in global energy markets.