Between sharp regulatory moves by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and renewed Middle East tensions, volatility has surged across global energy markets. The situation became even more energized with the EPA’s release of its updated Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2025 and 2026.
Let’s break down what happened, why it matters, and what to watch for next. Also, make sure to register for our live webinar for a comprehensive update on the biofuels market.
The EPA’s long-awaited RVO release has provided some clarity in an otherwise ambiguous bioenergy climate. And while the numbers imply strong growth, the market’s response has been less-than-enthusastic.
While the proposal adds over 1 billion gallons year-over-year (YoY), it undershoots the industry’s push for 5.25 billion gallons. This disparity becomes especially evident in light of 169 pending small refinery exemptions (SREs) that could erode real-world compliance targets.
Key Considerations:
The EPA's proposal certainly shows progress in this market sector. However, it does not fully meet the industry's expectations or the demands of a rapidly evolving energy landscape.
Addressing the pending SREs and setting more ambitious targets are crucial steps toward ensuring the growth and sustainability of the biofuels sector.
Beyond the EPA’s RVO announcements, markets were already jittery following Israeli strikes on Iran. The result?
With EPA chatter dominating, US grease and tallow markets were unusually quiet. Traders took a wait-and-see approach in light of the uncertainty on how mandates will shake out. Accordingly, we’ll likely see some movement in response to the new RVO insights.
Here’s what to keep an eye on:
Despite volume increases, EPA’s RVOs have left producers cautious. Watch for updates on SRE allocations and import RIN restrictions.
Oil market shocks ripple instantly through biofuels. Pricing correlations will only strengthen as feedstocks compete with traditional fuels.
With mandates increasing, supply-side constraints — especially in HEFA — may drive the next wave of innovation or disruption.
From China to Europe, trading opportunities are tightening. Watch duties, freight, and market sentiment closely.
As the EPA’s abrupt news on RVOs shows, the biofuels and feedstocks market can shift at a moment’s notice. That’s why it is so critical to stay informed on what’s happening in this rapidly shifting industry.
To help keep you updated on what’s happening and what’s to come, join us for a live webinar:
In this session, we unpack the shifting factors shaping the renewable fuels sector, including short-term price swings, medium-term regulatory pivots, and long-term trends pointing toward major transformation.
Whether you're navigating daily volatility or planning strategic investments, this session will help you stay grounded in a fast-paced market environment.
What You’ll Learn: