The global UPR market in 2025 was characterized by subdued demand, declining feedstock costs, and increasing competitive intensity. Across North America, Europe, and China, buyers maintained conservative procurement strategies, operating rates remained low to moderate, and producers continued to face persistent margin pressure. While the drivers varied by region, the overarching theme was clear: 2025 brought little demand growth and instead tested the resilience of producers worldwide.
The North American UPR market spent most of 2025 in a relatively healthy yet stagnant state. The slow start in January, defined by tentative restocking and isolated areas of strength, ultimately set the tone for the entire year. Downstream demand was stable but uninspired across nearly all sectors.
By mid-year, producers reported volumes 5–8% below those of 2024, with little improvement through October and November. The year closed with typical seasonal slowing, consistent with historical norms.
Feedstock trends were steady, predictable, and generally soft:
UPR pricing reflected these fundamentals:
The story for 2025 in North America is one of stagnation rather than distress. Volumes lagged, and visibility remained limited, yet no significant structural deterioration was observed. Sentiment for 2026 is muted but cautiously hopeful, hinging on macroeconomic stabilization and reduced tariff noise.
While North America experienced stagnation, Europe faced prolonged contraction. Throughout 2025, European UPR producers struggled against lacklustre demand, growing import pressure, and persistent margin compression.
Construction, automotive, marine, and infrastructure sectors underperformed:
2025 saw a surge in overseas competition:
The result was a price battle European producers rarely won, leading to lower operating rates, worsening margins, and deeply cautious sentiment.
UPR prices softened gradually, largely because there was little room left for further reductions. Producers attempted to preserve their margins even as costs rose.
Outlook for 2026 remains deeply cautious. Geopolitical instability, weak industrial activity, and overwhelming import pressure continue to cloud recovery prospects. Some market participants speculate that geopolitical resolutions (e.g., the Russia–Ukraine conflict) could eventually boost demand, although such scenarios remain uncertain and distant.
China's UPR market in 2025 was shaped by oversupply, weakening domestic consumption, and a steady decline in feedstock costs. Early-year stability gave way to deterioration as new capacity came online, downstream demand underperformed, and crude oil slumped.
By Q4, operating rates hovered between 29% and 37%, extremely low and highly sensitive to small order shifts.
Styrene, maleic anhydride (MA), and phthalic anhydride (PA) all declined significantly:
Intermittent mid-month rebounds—typically tied to fluctuations in crude oil—provided little lasting support.
UPR pricing followed feedstocks lower:
Despite weak resin prices, margins were still pressured because feedstocks occasionally rebounded when UPR demand did not.
Two significant developments defined 2025:
With exports rising nearly 16% year-over-year from January to May, China increasingly relied on overseas markets as domestic oversupply intensified.
Sentiment entering Q4 was subdued and cautious. With crude oil at annual lows, limited demand recovery expected during winter, and new capacity coming online, the near-term trend remains biased downward. High competition, discounting, and low margins are expected to persist into early 2026.