Thus far in 2025, the theme of market uncertainty has persisted in the biofuels industry. Political unrest, regional disruptions, anti-dumping rulings, and multiple other factors have all contributed to a market in flux. And the outlook for the rest of the year looks like more of the same.
One of the most challenging consequences coming from this uncertainty has been global trade disruptions. This post will explore several of these most prominent disruptions impacting the biofuels market. And to get an even deeper understanding of the market outlook, check out our on-demand webinar on global biofuels, feedstocks, regulations, and more.
In the UK, several significant events have shifted the flow of biofuels in and out of the country.
The closure of Vivergo Fuels, the UK's largest bioethanol plant, stemmed from a UK–US trade deal that eliminated a 19% tariff on US bioethanol. Domain‑wide access to cheaper imports undercut domestic production.
According to Vivergo Fuels’ managing director Ben Hackett, the closure felt like a failure of the UK government to support domestically produced biofuel:
“The government’s failure to back Vivergo has forced us to cease operations and move to closure immediately. This is a flagrant act of economic self-harm that will have far-reaching consequences. This is a massive blow to Hull and the Humber.”
Ben Hackett, Managing Director, Vivergo Fuels
Similarly, Greenergy’s biodiesel plant in the UK is also shutting down. Based on the company’s announcement, the closure stems from several import-related factors and governmental regulations:
This uncertainty about policy and where it will move has continued to impact bioenergy markets, notably the dynamics between US production and its global trading partners.
Speaking of the US, the EPA's June 2025 proposal under Trump’s “America First” plan seeks to cut tradable Renewable Fuel Credits (RINs) by 50% on biodiesel made from foreign feedstocks such as used cooking oil or animal fats. The move could increase compliance costs and feedstock prices, stressing US biodiesel producers.
Additionally, Section 45Z, or the Clean Fuel Production Credit, disqualifies imported UCO (used cooking oil) into the US. The change will likely shrink US demand for foreign feedstocks even more as the country shifts focus to domestic sourcing.
A jump in US tallow imports from Brazil (up 377%) has raised concerns about potential tax‑credit loopholes. Imported waste fats are lower‑carbon and thus more heavily subsidized, but this comes at the expense of domestic oil feedstocks like corn oil.
Thanks to the tariffs the US is imposing against Brazil, further shifts in these dynamics are also occurring.
Furthermore, despite the language around 45Z, policy ambiguity surrounding its implementation has also caused issues for some American producers. These include factory idling, production decreases, and other challenges.
European and UK markets also remain uncertain due to several factors:
In combination, these factors have disrupted much of the prior operational trade flows within the EU and UK. The “new normal” of the biofuel market movement has yet to be set, increasing ambiguity even more.
If this biofuels market roundup post has shown anything, it’s that uncertainty persists in virtually all sectors of renewables. To help you make sense of things, ResourceWise is proud to present an on-demand webinar, Finding Feedstocks: Biofuels Outlook Q4 2025.
Our VP of Low-Carbon Fuels, Matthew Stone, provides expert insights on the most critical elements of the market:
You won’t want to miss these essential updates on what’s ahead in the biofuels market. Check out the on-demand webinar today.