Each year, ResourceWise publishes a set of predictions outlining how we expect the forest products industry to evolve over the coming year. As we do annually, we revisit those calls to evaluate what held true, what evolved differently than expected, and what lessons the industry can carry forward.
Our 2025 predictions were shaped by a backdrop of regulatory uncertainty, uneven global demand, and a growing emphasis on transparency, technology, and alternative value streams. Looking back, many of the structural themes we highlighted proved durable.
Below, we review each of our 2025 predictions and assess how they ultimately played out.
We predicted that 2025 would mark a turning point for supply chain transparency, driven by regulations such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and heightened scrutiny of carbon markets.
Transparency remained a defining theme throughout the year, even as regulatory implementation timelines shifted. Although EUDR compliance requirements were delayed and, in some cases, simplified, the pause did not ease pressure on companies to improve traceability. Instead, many organizations continued investing in data infrastructure, supplier visibility, and risk assessment tools in anticipation of eventual enforcement.
At the same time, voluntary carbon markets faced growing scrutiny around integrity, verification, and disclosure. Buyers became more selective, quality standards rose, and expectations for transparent sourcing and reporting increased across forest-based value chains.
Certification organizations also reinforced the importance of improved traceability. In early 2025, the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) publicly acknowledged the need to strengthen tracking systems within certified supply chains, highlighting the adoption of advanced digital record-keeping and traceability tools to improve accountability and verify timber origins.
Momentum continued later in the year. In October 2025, more than 600 members convened in Panama for FSC’s triennial global General Assembly and global sustainability summit, where Motion 30 was adopted by a large majority. The motion mandates the development of a global digital system to track materials and volumes across FSC supply chains, with the goal of reducing fraud, increasing transparency, and strengthening trust in the FSC label. The system is expected to be implemented by 2030, pending final member approval at the 2028 General Assembly.
In 2025 we expected continued economic divergence between Eastern and Western markets, driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff activity that would reshape trade patterns and supply chain decisions.
By mid-2025, the global tariff environment had grown more unpredictable and layered. The United States reinforced and expanded tariff measures affecting a broad range of trading partners and products. A 50% tariff on imports from Brazil and an additional 25% tariff on select goods from India exemplified how expansive and complex tariff policy had become, prompting companies to reassess sourcing strategies and supply chain footprints amid rising cost and compliance uncertainty. Earlier tariffs targeting Canadian softwood lumber, Chinese finished goods, and EU paper products largely remained in place, while retaliatory actions continued to complicate cross-border trade.
Trade frictions were not limited to U.S. policy. The European Union also increased its use of trade-defense instruments in 2025, imposing and reviewing anti-dumping duties on a range of Chinese industrial and bio-based products. These actions reflected growing concern among EU policymakers about market distortion from low-priced Chinese imports and reinforced a broader trend toward protectionism and strategic decoupling between Eastern and Western economies. While not always directly targeting forest products, such measures contributed to a more fragmented global trade environment, raising uncertainty for manufacturers and downstream buyers alike.
Rather than acting as temporary disruptions, these trade frictions reshaped how forest products companies operated. Plant managers and procurement teams increasingly pursued diversified supplier bases and regional trade agreements to reduce exposure to unpredictable tariff regimes, while nearshoring and alternative sourcing strategies gained traction to manage both cost and lead-time risk. Mexican producers, for example, saw increased demand for tissue and packaging board as tariff-free alternatives under USMCA, and India’s exporters found new opportunities amid shifting flows away from China and other high-tariff corridors.
We expected timberland valuations to increasingly reflect carbon and environmental attributes as fiber markets faced pressure.
In reality, carbon considerations continued to gain prominence, particularly among institutional investors evaluating long-term asset resilience. However, the shift proved more evolutionary than transformative. While carbon and environmental services became part of underwriting conversations, they did not universally replace traditional value drivers such as stumpage and harvest flexibility. Ongoing concerns around credit quality, verification, and long-term demand tempered more aggressive assumptions tied solely to carbon revenues.
At the same time, 2025 highlighted how timberland value narratives are broadening beyond carbon credits alone. In December, Weyerhaeuser announced a partnership with a biocarbon producer to supply wood fiber for use in the steel and metals industries, positioning renewable timber inputs as a substitute for coal in heavy industrial processes. The initiative underscored growing interest in industrial decarbonization pathways that leverage forest resources, expanding the range of potential environmental value streams tied to timberland ownership.
Taken together, these developments reinforced a more nuanced reality: carbon and environmental attributes are increasingly influencing how timberland assets are evaluated.
We highlighted the U.S. South as a focal point for global interest due to its fiber cost advantages and scale.
That attention materialized, particularly in downstream manufacturing and packaging investments by international players. At the same time, the pulp sector faced meaningful headwinds, including capacity rationalization and mill closures, which complicated the case for new greenfield pulp investments in the near term.
We predicted a late-2025 lumber market rebound accompanied by new mill announcements. While one new sawmill was announced over the summer, several sawmills closed and more curtailed.
Instead, 2025 looked more like a transition year. Prices showed periods of stability and modest recovery, but not a decisive rebound. Producers remained cautious, managing capacity through restarts, curtailments, and selective investments rather than aggressive expansion.
While industry sentiment improved toward the latter part of the year, market conditions reflected positioning for a recovery rather than the recovery itself.
We anticipated a major acquisition by a Latin American or European forest products company in the U.S.
While the most visible transaction did not come from the regions we specified, the broader prediction held true. In 2025, Sumitomo Forestry of Japan completed a significant acquisition tied to sawmill operations in Louisiana, expanding its North American manufacturing footprint and reinforcing a long-term strategy of investing directly in U.S. downstream wood products capacity. The deal underscored the continued appeal of U.S. forest products assets to international investors seeking fiber security, scale, and proximity to end markets.
In addition, Spain-based SAICA Group announced a major investment exceeding $100 million in a new U.S. corrugated packaging facility. Although not a pulp-focused acquisition, the project represented a clear example of European capital flowing into U.S. forest products manufacturing to serve North American demand. Together, these moves highlighted sustained global interest in U.S. assets, even as investment activity skewed more toward sawmills and packaging than large integrated pulp platforms.
Our prediction focused on sustained high fiber costs in the Nordics following disruptions linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
In 2025, Nordic producers continued to face elevated wood costs and margin pressure. While this led to production curtailments and operational adjustments, widespread permanent closures were less evident than anticipated. The cost challenge was real, but responses were more flexible and incremental.
Our final prediction argued that artificial intelligence would become a meaningful productivity differentiator rather than a disruptive takeover force.
This proved largely accurate. AI adoption expanded across industries, including forest products, but most companies remained early in scaling full value capture. Those that invested in operational analytics, maintenance optimization, and decision-support tools began to see measurable gains, reinforcing a widening gap between early adopters and laggards.
As we look ahead to 2026, new developments and structural shifts will continue to reshape the market. Explore ResourceWise CEO Pete Stewart and CRO Matt Elhardt’s predictions on the key industry dynamics and risks that will define the year ahead.