The global chlor-alkali and PVC sectors spent 2025 adjusting to a set of structural pressures that reshaped trade routes, altered operating strategies, and accelerated capacity rationalization, particularly in Europe. Across both chains, the year was shaped by muted construction activity, shifting global competitiveness, and a steady rise in the influence of policy and trade measures on the supply-and-demand balance.
In North America, changes in the PVC market were more pronounced than those in caustic soda, where demand was stable at a low level, and availability was heavily influenced by the performance of chlorine derivatives. The year began with a series of outages that briefly tightened the supply of membrane-grade caustic soda, but this eased as PVC markets softened and chlorine demand declined.
Despite increasingly complex trade barriers, U.S. PVC exports proved resilient. Combined volumes for the first three quarters slipped by only about 0.25 percent compared with 2024. This apparent stability reflected large shifts in destination. Exports to India fell to just over one-fifth of their 2024 levels due to prolonged antidumping measures and BIS requirements. With BIS now canceled, India is reopening as a major outlet and may take pressure off the U.S. export market in early 2026. Turkey became a significantly more important destination, rising to become the fourth-largest importer of U.S. PVC, while exports to South America were disrupted by reciprocal tariff actions and antidumping duties.
Domestic PVC demand in the United States increased by around 1–2 percent, as high construction costs, inconsistent housing indicators, and a challenging macroeconomic environment limited further improvements. One emerging area of growth was data center construction, where PVC has found increasing use in cable protection, cooling water systems, and conduit installation. Although growth in this segment has been rapid, absolute volumes remain very small compared with traditional pipe and profile applications.
Europe underwent the most pronounced structural change. Cost disadvantages, slow construction activity, and rising imports pushed both chlor-alkali and PVC operating rates into the 65–72 percent range. Rationalization became a central theme. Permanent closures at Fortischem, Spolana, Vencorex, and Arkema Jarrie removed capacity from the system, and Vynova confirmed the 225 ktpa PVC shutdown at Beek in November 2025. Dow's planned exit from its integrated Schkopau site by 2027 signaled much larger future reductions in chlorine, caustic soda, VCM, and EDC.
These developments reflected a broader shift in Europe as cost and regulatory pressures eroded competitiveness relative to the United States, Asia, and the Middle East. PVC demand across Europe remained slow throughout the year and was held back by construction activity that failed to improve meaningfully. Imports from South Korea and China increased sharply and became a core part of the supply mix for converters. European producers were compelled to accept contract reductions throughout the year, often in the face of significantly discounted Asian material.
South America saw mixed conditions across PVC and chlor-alkali markets. Brazil increased the antidumping duty on U.S. PVC to 43.7 percent, which changed regional trade flows. Braskem closed its Maceió chlor-alkali facility, which increased reliance on imported EDC to sustain PVC production. Construction activity in the region was generally slow, although Argentina showed signs of improvement in certain areas. Caustic soda demand was steady, and the region continued to rely on imported volumes in some areas.
In the Middle East and Africa, Qatar Vinyl’s entry into PVC production represented a notable shift. The expected 350 ktpa of new PVC supply is set to influence regional and global trade flows into India and Europe. Turkey remained a key market for international exports, although pressure from Chinese, American, and Egyptian prices persisted. A tariff reduction by Turkey on U.S. PVC improved U.S. competitiveness but offered limited support to European producers.
By late 2025, global PVC markets remained oversupplied, and caustic soda had moved from early-year tightness into a more balanced state. The defining features of the year were structural rather than cyclical in nature. These included the retreat of European capacity, the redirection of global trade flows, increased dependence on Middle Eastern and U.S. supply, and the growing influence of policy decisions, such as the removal of the BIS in India. The outlook for 2026 hinges on whether construction activity stabilizes, how new Qatari volumes are integrated into trade flows, and whether further rationalization continues across Europe.