The US renewable diesel market is currently facing multiple challenges. The industry has seen strong global demand due to the push for lower-carbon fuels. But current trade disputes, tariff concerns, and allegations of unfair competition have disrupted market stability.
The most pressing issue is the rising scrutiny over potential dumping practices. This refers to instances where imports of US renewable diesel are priced either lower than domestic rates or below the actual production costs.
Multiple trade investigations have recently been announced to look more closely into the matter. These investigations threaten to reshape trade flows and limit US producers' access to key international markets.
The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) has officially launched an anti-dumping investigation into US renewable diesel imports. This follows formal complaints by the Renewable Transport Fuel Association (RTFA) and several major UK-based renewable fuel producers such as Greenergy, Olleco, and Argent Energy.
These companies allege that US renewable diesel has been sold in the UK below its fair market value. The price differential has led to declining domestic production, capacity, market share, and profitability.
The investigation explicitly excludes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to focus solely on renewable diesel imports.
The TRA's inquiry will cover all imports from 2024. Interested parties have until April 1 to contribute to the investigation. Depending on the outcome, provisional duties could potentially be imposed as early as September or October.
This timeline creates an urgent challenge for US producers as the European Union has already restricted its market to American renewable diesel. If the UK imposes duties, US exporters will have only Norway and Switzerland as trade destinations.
To compound the situation even further, the UK government's stance has shifted toward trade protectionism due to factors like economic pressures and industry lobbying. If substantial evidence of dumping is found, the likelihood of long-term tariffs increases. And this change could significantly impact transatlantic renewable diesel trade.
The final findings from the investigation are expected between November and December with a final decision projected for March 2026.
Like the UK, Canada also recently announced an anti-dumping investigation into US renewable diesel imports. This move further strains trade relations between the two nations already at odds in tariff disputes over industries like agriculture, steel, and aluminum.
Unlike the UK's extended timeline, Canada's investigation will operate much faster. So fast, in fact, that duties could be implemented in as little as 90 days based on the outcome of the probe. This accelerated process could create an immediate and substantial barrier for US producers supplying renewable diesel to Canada.
The Canadian government has made it clear that it will take decisive action if evidence of dumping is confirmed. If duties are imposed, they could mirror those already placed on US biodiesel imports in previous years.
Trade restrictions from Canada could further limit the ability of US renewable diesel producers to sell in North America. The disruption will shift trading dynamics, intensifying the need for the US to find alternative markets.
While Canada and the UK are two of the latest countries to take action, we may see other countries follow suit.
Trade barriers from the US could result due to several factors:
These risks make market diversification and compliance with evolving trade policies more crucial than ever for US-based renewable diesel producers.
Beyond trade restrictions, these investigations have broader implications for the renewable diesel sector.
As more countries impose protective measures, US renewable diesel producers may need to shift focus toward expanding domestic consumption and exploring new global markets. However, even the domestic landscape presents challenges, as federal and state-level incentives for renewable fuels are continuously evolving.
These trade developments could also impact global renewable diesel pricing. If the US loses key export markets, it could lead to an oversupply of renewable diesel domestically. The surplus would drive down prices and potentially affect investment in new production capacity.
Conversely, reduced supply in the UK and Canada could push prices higher in those regions. The short-term consequence would affect fuel costs for consumers and businesses alike.
The coming months will be decisive for the US renewable diesel industry. As trade disputes escalate and new regulations emerge, staying informed and agile will be essential for companies looking to secure their place in the evolving market landscape.
With so many moving parts in the renewable diesel market, businesses must have the best possible data and insights to move forward. Rapid regulatory changes, evolving trade policies, and shifting demand patterns make strategic decision-making exceptionally complex.
Access to reliable data, expert analysis, and market insights is critical. Companies must stay ahead of legislative developments, monitor trade negotiations, and adjust their strategies when necessary.
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