The global pulp and paper industry is entering a new era — one defined by structural overcapacity in China that is reshaping market dynamics, trade flows, and profitability worldwide.
In our recent ResourceWise webinar, “Chinese Overcapacity: Issues and Implications for Global Pulp & Paper,” Chief Revenue Officer Matt Elhardt unpacked the data behind this shift — and what it means for producers, traders, and brand owners navigating an increasingly uneven playing field.
Over the past ten years, China has significantly increased capacity across nearly every grade. Operating rates have mostly ranged from the 60s to 80s, making this the common trend rather than an exception. For example, in containerboard, China has added more than 25 million tons of capacity since 2019 — a huge figure considering mill operating rates remain below 70%. In Western markets, such a level of utilization would lead to shutdowns. However, in China, structural factors and incentives continue to promote new investments.
Leading Chinese players such as Nine Dragons, Shandong Sun Paper, and Lee & Man are pursuing vertical integration across pulp and paper to secure fiber supply and lower costs. Combined with access to low-priced Russian energy and lower domestic financing, this strategy has made China’s integrated producers some of the most cost-competitive globally in certain markets.
As a result, Chinese mills are exporting more paperboard and packaging grades into Southeast Asia, EMEA, and even Turkey — regions once dominated by Western suppliers.
The ripple effects are being felt across every region. Western mills face margin compression as Chinese capacity effectively sets a global price ceiling. Trade flows have shifted, and traditional exporters in North America and Europe are losing share to Asia-based producers that benefit from government support and integrated cost structures.
But these challenges also highlight an important strategic opportunity: differentiation through sustainability and transparency.
The full session dives deeper into the data, drivers, and scenarios shaping the global pulp and paper market — along with strategic steps to stay competitive in a world defined by Chinese overcapacity.
Watch the on-demand webinar now to access the complete insights and recommendations from ResourceWise.