China Nylon 6 and Methanol Outlook 2026: Inventory and Import Risk Dominate

China’s nylon 6 and methanol markets experienced sharp cost-driven swings, but weak demand and high inventories continue to constrain upside.

Key Takeaways

• From May to mid-June, caprolactam operating rates exceeded 80% and prices fell toward RMB 11,000 per metric ton.
• From mid-June to early July, lower commodity prices pushed caprolactam below RMB 11,000 and PA 6 chips toward the same level.
• Caprolactam recovered toward RMB 12,000 per metric ton as costs increased and producers reduced operating rates to around 65%.

Nylon 6: Inventories Rose As Prices Weakened

From May to mid-June, caprolactam operating rates exceeded 80% and prices fell toward RMB 11,000 per metric ton. PA 6 chip prices followed, inventories accumulated and producers remained under margin pressure.

A Brief Truce Deepened Bearish Sentiment

From mid-June to early July, lower commodity prices pushed caprolactam below RMB 11,000 and PA 6 chips toward the same level. Trading sentiment turned strongly bearish, inventories reached a year-to-date high and lower offers generated little additional volume.

July Brought a Cost-Led Rebound

Caprolactam recovered toward RMB 12,000 per metric ton as costs increased and producers reduced operating rates to around 65%. PA 6 prices also rose, but high-price transactions remained limited because demand was still weak.

Methanol Remains Exposed to Import Disruption

China receives a large share of imported methanol from Iran, making shipping through the Strait of Hormuz a direct market factor. Prices moved below RMB 2,500 per metric ton when the market expected imports to recover, then rebounded above RMB 2,600 as uncertainty returned.

H2 Outlook

Traditional summer weakness and cautious downstream purchasing will limit methanol upside. In nylon 6, producers and buyers remain in a standoff between cost support and weak consumption.