Finland and Sweden have long held strong positions in the global pulp and paper industry, supported by substantial imports of wood raw materials. However, recent geopolitical events and shifting trade policies are reshaping the market landscape. With sourcing disruptions, rising costs, and mounting trade uncertainties, the forest products sectors in both countries face increasing pressure. These developments carry significant implications for producers, suppliers, and policymakers alike.
Until 2022, Russia was a critical supplier of hardwood and softwood logs to Finland and Sweden. Following the invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions, imports from Russia dropped sharply—eventually to zero. In response, both countries increased imports from other regions. In 2024, combined log imports into Finland and Sweden reached 13.2 million cubic meters, a 25% increase over 2023 but still just half of the 2006 volume.
These supply chain changes have not come without cost. Wood fiber prices have risen significantly. In Q4 2024, wood accounted for nearly 73% of manufacturing cash costs in Finland and more than 64% in Sweden. Compared to Q4 2021, softwood pulplog prices rose 51% in Finland and 29% in Sweden. Hardwood pulplog prices also surged—by 54% in Finland and 40% in Sweden. This cost inflation continues to weigh heavily on producers’ margins.
Compounding the supply and cost issues are changes in international trade dynamics, particularly concerning U.S. policy. The United States, Finland’s third-largest export market for forest products in 2024, has imposed new tariffs on pulp, paper, and board products from the EU. While some product categories were excluded, both Finnish and Swedish industry groups have voiced concerns about the unpredictability of further policy actions.
The trade policy uncertainty is paired with unfavorable currency trends. The weakening U.S. dollar relative to the euro and Swedish krona is making Nordic exports less competitive in global markets. For heavily export-oriented sectors like Sweden’s forest products industry—where 60% of output is sold abroad—this adds another layer of strain on profitability and planning.
Despite stable production levels in recent years, the outlook for Nordic forest industries remains complex. Ongoing volatility in wood costs, evolving global trade conditions, and currency fluctuations continue to shape the operating environment. Industry participants must monitor these factors closely to adapt their strategies and maintain competitiveness.
To gain a deeper understanding of these developments—including detailed data on log imports, price trends, and the implications of U.S. tariffs—download our full Market Insights report, “Rising Costs and Trade Risk Threaten Nordic Forest Sector.” This in-depth report provides critical context and analysis for stakeholders navigating the evolving landscape of the forest products sector in Finland and Sweden.